生态与农村环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(9)：1188-1199,12.DOI:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2024.0544
CMIP6模式对中国碳中和时期陆地生态系统的预估
Projection of China's Terrestrial Ecosystems during the Carbon Neutrality Period Based on CMIP6
摘要
Abstract
The carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystemsplays a crucial role in mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions and serves as a key strategy for China to meet its"peak carbon dioxide emissions"and"carbon neutrality"targets.To investigate the dynamics of China's terrestrial ecosystems in the context of carbon neutrality,this study utilizes models from the International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)alongside observational data.The model selection process is based on the performance of nine CMIP6 Earth system models in simulating key terrestrial eco-system parameters-Leaf Area Index(LAI),Gross Primary Productivity(GPP)and Net Primary Productivity(NPP)—during the historical reference period(1992-2011).The multi-model ensemble(MME)approach is then employed to simulate changes in LAI,GPP,and NPP,including their overall,seasonal and interannual variations,under a future car-bon neutrality scenario.Additionally,the study analyzes the influence of climate factors(precipitation,temperature,hu-midity,and solar radiation)and human activities on these ecosystem parameters.The results show that MME can effec-tively capture the spatiotemporal distribution of annual average LAI,GPP and NPP across China,though some overestima-tions remain.Compared to the historical reference period,the carbon neutrality period shows an overall increase in these parameters,with average increases of 0.30 m2·m-2 for LAI,196.84 g·m-2 for GPP,and 101.91 g·m-2 for NPP.The magnitude of these increases diminishes from southeast to northwest.Seasonally,the largest increases are observed in sum-mer(0.37 m2·m-2 for LAI,78.06 g·m-2 for GPP,and 42.12 g·m-2 for NPP),while the smallest occur in winter(0.20 m2·m-2 for LAI,16.69 g·m-2 for GPP,and 7.11 g·m-2 for NPP).The southeastern and northeastern regions show the highest rates of increase.In terms of interannual variations,the Yangtze River Basin,Hainan,and Taiwan ex-hibit a consistent upward trend in ecosystem parameters,while significant declines are observed in Guangxi,Guangdong,and southwestern Yunnan.Factor Contribution analysis reveals that precipitation primarily drives changes in LAI,whereas human activities dominate trends in GPP and NPP.These findings suggest that,during future carbon neutrality periods,the greening and carbon sequestration capacity of China's terrestrial ecosystems will likely improve,providing valuable in-sights for China's carbon neutrality goals and broader climate change research.关键词
CMIP6/碳中和/陆地生态系统/降水/人类活动Key words
CMIP6/carbon neutrality/terrestrial ecosystems/precipitation/human activity分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
侯书秀,刘坤,张乐英,张贻荣..CMIP6模式对中国碳中和时期陆地生态系统的预估[J].生态与农村环境学报,2025,41(9):1188-1199,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFD2200404) （2021YFD2200404）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(GYZX230405) （GYZX230405）
福建省林业科技项目(2022FKJ28) （2022FKJ28）
