气象2025，Vol.51Issue(9)：1029-1045,17.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.041401
高分辨率区域集合预报混合侧边界扰动方法研究
Research on the Mixed Lateral Boundary Perturbation Method for High-Resolution Regional Ensemble Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Due to the limitations of the limited area,lateral boundary perturbation is one of the primary perturbation methods for regional ensemble prediction.However,it remains unclear how to construct lat-eral boundary perturbations for the high-resolution regional ensemble prediction system of China Meteoro-logical Administration(CMA)to improve forecast skill.This paper develops a mixed lateral boundary per-turbation method using the perturbation field of the CMA global ensemble prediction and the lateral boundary field of the regional deterministic model,and also adjusts the perturbation magnitude through dynamic perturbation coefficients.The results show that no lateral boundary perturbation scheme can sup-press the growth of perturbation energy at later forecast periods,leading to insufficient ensemble spreads.The mixed lateral boundary perturbation scheme can enhance the perturbation energy spectra at meso-αscale and large scale,and improve the spread-skill relationships and probabilistic forecast skills for isobaric elements and precipitation.Compared to the mixed lateral boundary perturbation scheme,the dynamic mixed lateral boundary perturbation scheme can enhance the spectral energy above 100 km and improve the spread-skill relationships and the probabilistic forecast skills for low-level variables and precipitation be-yond 24 h.So,it has a good potential for operational application.关键词
高分辨率区域集合预报/混合侧边界扰动/动态扰动系数/离散度技巧关系Key words
high-resolution regional ensemble forecast/mixed lateral boundary perturbation/dynamic per-turbation coefficient/spread-skill relationship分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王婧卓,李红祺,陈静,徐致真,姚梦颖..高分辨率区域集合预报混合侧边界扰动方法研究[J].气象,2025,51(9):1029-1045,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2242213、42105154)共同资助 （U2242213、42105154）
