气象2025，Vol.51Issue(9)：1046-1060,15.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.041802
CMA-CPEPS和CMA-REPS集合预报系统对2023年中国汛期降水预报的对比评估
Comparative Evaluation of CMA-CPEPS and CMA-REPS for Precipitation Forecasts over China During the 2023 Flood Season
摘要
Abstract
Based on the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Convection-Permitting Ensemble Pre-diction System(CMA-CPEPS)and Regional Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-REPS),the precipitation forecast performance during the 2023 flood season(from 15 June to 28 August)in China,and a case analy-sis of the July 2023 extremely severe torrential rain in North China are objectively evaluated.The results indicate that CMA-REPS has the problem of systematically overestimating precipitation,but CMA-CPEPS can significantly overcome this problem.Relative to CMA-REPS,CMA-CPEPS shows the obvious superi-ority in prediction capacity for clear and rainy weather changes and its temporal changes,with a better probability forecasting and resolution ability for precipitation.Both CMA-CPEPS and CMA-REPS exhibit low spread values,while the spread/RMSE(root mean square error)value and the spatial correlation be-tween spread and RMSE of CMA-CPEPS and CMA-REPS are equivalent.In the July 2023 extremely se-vere torrential rain in North China,CMA-CPEPS has a better ability to capture precipitation details com-pared to CMA-REPS.CMA-CPEPS outperforms CMA-REPS in forecasting precipitation intensity,evolu-tion trend of precipitation intensity,and spatio-temporal resolution of heavy precipitation,especially in short-duration heavy precipitation events.Overall,CMA-CPEPS has a significantly enhancement over CMA-REPS in precipitation forecasting for the 2023 flood season in China.关键词
CMA对流尺度集合预报系统(CMA-CPEPS)/CMA区域集合预报系统(CMA-REPS)/"23·7"华北特大暴雨/FSS评分Key words
CMA-CPEPS/CMA-REPS/the July 2023 extremely severe torrential rain in North China/FSS score分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
熊洁,李俊,陈法敬,李红祺,王明欢,康兆萍..CMA-CPEPS和CMA-REPS集合预报系统对2023年中国汛期降水预报的对比评估[J].气象,2025,51(9):1046-1060,15.基金项目
数值预报国省统筹研发任务(TCYF2025GS024)、湖北省气象局科技发展基金面上项目(2022Y24)和中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所基本科研业务专项(202208)共同资助 （TCYF2025GS024）
