人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(10)：52-60,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.47.10.007
变化环境下青藏高原东南缘水源区径流时空变化特征分析
Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Runoff in Water Source Area Along Southeastern Tibetan Plateau Under Changing Environment Under Changing Environment
摘要
Abstract
Mastering the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving forces of historical and current runoff changes in water source areas can reveal the complex relationship between changing environments and runoff responses,thereby more accurately predicting the complex charac-teristics of runoff changes in a future period.Based on the runoff and precipitation data from six hydrological stations in the study area from 1961 to 1975 and 2006 to 2020,this article compared and analyzed the basic characteristics of runoff changes in each hydrological station during the two periods.The cumulative slope change rate method was introduced to reveal the main driving forces of runoff changes in differ-ent periods.Finally,the R/S analysis method was used to predict the future trend of runoff changes in each hydrological station.The research results indicate that a)the annual flow change trends of each hydrological station from 1961 to 1975 and from 2006 to 2020 are basically con-sistent.From 1961 to 1975,except for the Maerkang Hydrological Station,the average annual flow of other hydrological stations shows a non-significant downward trend.From 2006 to 2020,the average annual flow of each hydrological station shows a significant upward trend.b)Compared with 1961 to 1975,the average annual flow in the Yalong River Basin increases by 8.30%from 2006 to 2020,the proportion of dry season flow increases by 7.16%,the coefficient of non-uniformity decreases by 1.33%,and the coefficient of variation shows no signifi-cant change.The average annual flow in the Dadu River Basin decreases by 1.50%,the proportion of dry season flow increases by 1.85%,the coefficient of non-uniformity increases by 2.78%,and the coefficient of variation increases by 61.54%.c)The runoff supply between the Daofu to Yajiang and Maerkang to Dajin sections is relatively weak.The runoff changes in the Yalong River Basin show a more positive trend compared to the Dadu River Basin.d)From 1961 to 1975,human activities contribute 91.94%,60.44%,60.22%,and 87.71%to the run-off changes at Ganzi Station,Zumuzu Station,Maerkang Station,and Dajin Station,respectively.The precipitation contributes 56.20%and 64.19%to the runoff changes at Daofu Station and Yajiang Station,respectively.From 2006 to 2020,human activities contributes 58.13%,72.52%,67.46%,55.75%,and 66.36%to the runoff changes at Ganzi Station,Daofu Station,Zumuzu Station,Maerkang Station,and Da-jin Station,respectively.The precipitation contributes 50.87%to the runoff changes at Yajiang Station.e)The runoff of the six hydrological stations may continue to show an upward trend in the future.关键词
径流变化/M-K/累积量斜率变化率/青藏高原东南缘/雅砻江/大渡河Key words
runoff variation/M-K/cumulative slope change rate/southeastern Tibetan Plateau/Yalong River/Dadu River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
曾三峡,张陵蕾,陈旻,安瑞冬,李永,李嘉..变化环境下青藏高原东南缘水源区径流时空变化特征分析[J].人民黄河,2025,47(10):52-60,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202402,2022YFC3202403) （2022YFC3202402,2022YFC3202403）
