人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(10)：61-66,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.10.008
博斯腾湖流域长时序降水、蒸发及干旱状况变化特征分析
Analysis of Long-Term Characteristics of Rainfall,Evaporation,and Drought Conditions in the Bosten Lake Basin
摘要
Abstract
Given the significant implications of the dynamic hydrological characteristics of the Bosten Lake Basin for regional water resources management,ecological preservation,and socio-economic activities,this study undertook an in-depth investigation into the fluctuations in precipitation,water surface evaporation,and drought index within the basin spanning from 1955 to 2020.Through the comprehensive applica-tion of diverse statistical methodologies,including trend analysis,cluster analysis,mutation detection,and wavelet analysis,this research unveiled the evolutionary patterns and potential trends in precipitation,evaporation,and drought index within the study area.The findings re-veal that the Bosten Lake Basin falls into an extremely arid zone,where precipitation demonstrates significant interannual variability alongside a non-significant upward trend.Such variation patterns persist across multiple temporal scales,with the most prominent periodic oscillations observed at 10-20 year cycles.The abrupt change of evaporation mainly occurs around 2000,showing a periodic variation trend across multi-ple time scales,with the main variation cycle being approximately 40 years.While the drought index exhibits no statistically significant overall variation during the study period,it displays distinct periodic characteristics at decadal(10 year)and tridecadal(30 year)scales.Ultimate-ly,the research outcomes not only elucidate the intricate change characteristics and potential trends of precipitation,evaporation,and drought index in the Bosten Lake Basin,but also furnish a robust scientific foundation and decision-making support for water resources man-agement,ecological preservation,and drought relief and mitigation strategies within the basin.关键词
降水量/蒸发量/干旱指数/突变分析/小波分析/博斯腾湖流域Key words
precipitation/evaporation capacity/drought index/mutation analysis/wavelet analysis/Bosten Lake Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
吾甫尔江·艾买提,魏光辉,时芳欣,邓宇..博斯腾湖流域长时序降水、蒸发及干旱状况变化特征分析[J].人民黄河,2025,47(10):61-66,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2003204) （U2003204）
黄河水利科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2023-05) （HKY-JBYW-2023-05）
黄河水利科学研究院科技发展基金专项(黄科发202419) （黄科发202419）
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206804) （2023YFC3206804）
水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022155) （SKS-2022155）
