人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(10)：87-93,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.10.012
基于贝叶斯理论的地下水结构模型的不确定性分析
Uncertainty Analysis of Groundwater Structure Model Based on Bayesian Theory
摘要
Abstract
The underground aquifer structure has the characteristics of complex space and variable parameters,which leads to the uncertainty of the groundwater model built by numerical simulation to reveal the groundwater movement.In order to analyze the influence of the uncertain-ty of the groundwater structure model on the output results,two models of different structures were established.Based on the commonly used Bayesian theory in groundwater movement simulation and parameter optimization,the standard difference evolutionary adaptive(DREAM)al-gorithm was used for sampling,and parameter samples of the two different structure models were obtained.By establishing alternative models,the simulation calculation efficiency was improved,and the collected samples and corresponding calculation results were statistically analyzed.Finally,the uncertainty of the model structure was analyzed.The results indicate that the uncertainty of the model structure can cause uncer-tainty in the input parameters,and the uncertainty of the parameters will increase with the increase of the uncertainty of the model structure.The closer the model structure is to the actual situation of the underground aquifer,the closer the parameters are to their true values;During the simulation process,there are phenomena where different parameters result in the same simulation results,and different model structures and parameters result in the same simulation results.Overall,the uncertainty of the output results caused by the model structure cannot be compensated for by the uncertainty of the parameters.However,the degree of uncertainty caused by the model structure is limited by the sen-sitivity of the input parameters,and the closer the groundwater model structure is to the real groundwater aquifer system,the more accurate the simulation results of the model.关键词
贝叶斯理论/地下含水层结构/DREAM算法/替代模型/不确定性分析Key words
Bayesian theory/underground aquifer structure/DREAM algorithm/surrogate model/uncertainty analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
苏昆琨,马红彬,董金玉,杨亚茹,熊玉东..基于贝叶斯理论的地下水结构模型的不确定性分析[J].人民黄河,2025,47(10):87-93,7.基金项目
河南省水利厅水利科技攻关项目(GG202005) （GG202005）
河南省重点研发专项(241111322900) （241111322900）
河南省科技攻关项目(252102320011) （252102320011）
