山东电力技术2025，Vol.52Issue(9)：32-43,12.DOI:10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2025.09.004
考虑新能源不确定性的电力系统灵活性评价方法与提升措施
Power System Flexibility Evaluation Method and Improvement Measures Considering New Energy Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
The high proportion of new energy access has attracted more attention to power system flexibility.Accurately quantifying the flexibility adjustment demand caused by the uncertain output of new energy and reasonably evaluating and improving the flexibility balance capacity of the system are necessary measures to improve the system's acceptance capacity of new energy.A novel modeling methodology is proposed to characterize renewable energy uncertainty,where flexibility demand is determined based on confidence intervals of forecasting errors.Concurrently,flexibility supply capacities of conventional units are systematically modeled.Comprehensive flexibility evaluation indices are developed from the perspective of flexibility supply-demand equilibrium.Then,an optimal scheduling model incorporating flexibility requirements is constructed,and the proposed index is applied to evaluate the current insufficient flexibility of the system.Finally,the flexible transformation path of thermal power and the future development of new energy installed capacity are simulated to verify the role of flexible transformation of units in improving flexibility.关键词
高比例新能源/新能源不确定性/电力系统灵活性平衡/灵活性评价指标/新能源消纳Key words
high proportion of new energy/new energy uncertainty/power system flexibility balance/flexibility evaluation index/new energy consumption分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
冯树海,史新红,郑亚先,石飞..考虑新能源不确定性的电力系统灵活性评价方法与提升措施[J].山东电力技术,2025,52(9):32-43,12.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目"新型电力系统平衡体系下的电力现货市场出清定价机理及方法研究"(SGSXDK00YJJS2310571). Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China"Research on the Pricing Mechanism and Method of Electricity Spot Market Clearing Under the New Power System Balance System"(SGSXDK00YJJS2310571). （SGSXDK00YJJS2310571）
