水科学进展2025，Vol.36Issue(4)：610-620,11.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2025.04.006
基于组件式水文模型的径流模拟不确定性分析
Analysis of runoff simulation uncertainty based on component-based hydrological model in the Upper Yangtze River basin
摘要
Abstract
To evaluate the relative influence of precipitation data,model structure and model parameters on runoff simulation uncertainty,this study selected four multiple precipitation datasets(station observations,CRUJRA,CMFD,ERA5-Land gridded data)and constructed a modular component-based hydrological model.The dynamic Sobol'sensitivity analysis method was applied to quantify the sensitivity of input data,model structure,and parameters across 51 sub-basins in the Upper Yangtze River basin.The results are as follows:①Model parameters contribute most significantly to runoff simulation uncertainty,with the median of multi-year average total order sensitivity index being 0.59 across sub-basins,followed by model structure(0.51)and precipitation data(0.36).②The interflow process exhibits the highest sensitivity,followed by evapotranspiration,snow balance,surface runoff and baseflow processes.The sensitivities of hydrological sub-processes demonstrate seasonal variability,with the snow balance process being the most pronounced.③Parameters related to snow balance,evapotranspiration,and interflow processes are critical parameters influencing the runoff simulation uncertainty.④Mean temperature,elevation,and hydraulic conductivity are significant factors influencing model structure and parameter sensitivities of snow balance,evapotranspiration,and interflow processes.The study identifies time-varying sensitivity patterns of precipitation data,model structure and parameters on runoff simulation uncertainty,providing insights for optimizing hydrological model structure and parameterization.关键词
径流模拟/不确定性/组件式水文模型/模型结构/模型参数/动态敏感性分析Key words
streamflow simulation/uncertainty/component-based hydrological model/model structure/model parameter/dynamic sensitivity analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
周丽婷,谢康,刘攀,张晓菁,曾志强,周涛,张海荣..基于组件式水文模型的径流模拟不确定性分析[J].水科学进展,2025,36(4):610-620,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF0805702) （2023YFF0805702）
国家自然科学基金项目(52409008)The study is financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFF0805702)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52409008). （52409008）
