水利水电科技进展2025，Vol.45Issue(5)：1-12,12.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2025.05.001
梯级坝群系统服役风险评估与调控研究现状与展望
Research status and prospects of service risk assessment and regulation for cascade dam systems
摘要
Abstract
As an important engineering system for integrated allocation of water resources and hydroelectric energy development in river basins,cascade dam systems exhibit complex systematic characteristics characterized by the superposition,transmission and amplification of multi-source risks during operation.With China's vigorous promotion of basin cascade development and the continuous strengthening of dam safety risk management system construction,risk management of cascade dam systems has become a research priority in the field of hydraulic engineering safety.Concentrated on the risk transmission effects within cascade dam systems,advances in the aspects of risk probability calculation,loss assessment,risk classification and coordinated regulation were reviewed.It is pointed out that future research should focus on the high-fidelity simulation of dam-break flood propagation in cascade systems,the coupling analysis of multi-source risks,the improvement of risk assessment frameworks,the formulation of multi-dimensional coordinated regulation strategies and the construction of intelligent river basin management platforms,with the aim of systematically enhancing the risk prevention and control capabilities as well as the regulation level of cascade dam systems.关键词
梯级坝群系统/风险传递/风险评估/风险调控Key words
cascade dam system/risk transmission/risk assessment/risk control分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
苏怀智,高建新,傅志敏,毛延翩,远近,齐智勇,都旭煌..梯级坝群系统服役风险评估与调控研究现状与展望[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(5):1-12,12.基金项目
水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心开放研究基金项目(GJGCZX-JJ-202428) （GJGCZX-JJ-202428）
国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239009) （52239009）
