天津农业科学2025，Vol.31Issue(9)：79-90,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2025.09.013
南四湖流域生态系统服务价值与景观生态风险时空演变及相关性分析
Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Correlation Analysis of ESV and LER in Nansihu Lake Basin
摘要
Abstract
Investigating the spatio-temporal evolution and correlation between Ecosystem Service Value(ESV)and Landscape Ecolog-ical Risk(LER)provides a basis for understanding land use patterns and optimizing ecological security protection strategies in the study area.Taking the Nansihu Lake Basin as the study area,this research utilized land use data from five periods(2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020)and adopted a 3 km×3 km grid as the evaluation unit to assess the ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk.The spatio-temporal variations of these indicators were analyzed,and a bivariate spatial autocorrelation model was constructed to explore their spatial correlation and evolutionary characteristics.The results indicated that from 2000 to 2020,the ESV in the Nansihu Lake Basin showed an initial increase followed by a decrease,with a spatial distribution characterized by lower values in the west and higher values in the east.The overall LER in the basin changes slightly,maintaining an average value around 0.41.Medium-risk ar-eas accounted for the largest proportion,while high-risk areas exhibited a decreasing trend.Spatially,high-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the border regions of Jining,Zaozhuang,and Tai'an cities.A positive spatial autocorrelation was observed between ESV and LER,with dominant clustering patterns of"low value-low risk"and"high value-high risk."The"low value-low risk"areas were primarily distributed in the western part,whereas the"high value-high risk"zones were concentrated in the eastern part,demonstrating distinct spatial distribution characteristics.In conclusion,based on the research findings,this study can provide scien-tific references for enhancing the ecosystem service value in the Nansihu Lake Basin.关键词
生态系统服务价值/景观生态风险/时空变化/空间自相关/南四湖流域Key words
ecosystem service value/landscape ecological risk/spatio-temporal variation/spatial autocorrelation/Nansihu Lake Basin分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
邓一诺,刘平辉,吴佳..南四湖流域生态系统服务价值与景观生态风险时空演变及相关性分析[J].天津农业科学,2025,31(9):79-90,12.基金项目
江西省高校人文社科项目(JC22228) （JC22228）
