医学信息2025，Vol.38Issue(18)：1-6,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2025.18.001
基于SEER数据库构建年轻女性新发转移性乳腺癌患者的预后列线图
Nomogram of Survival in Young Women with De Novo Metastatic Breast Cancer Based on the SEER Database
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct the nomogram for predicting the overall survival(OS)of young women with metastatic breast cancer and to find its independent survival predictors.Methods The data of 755 young women diagnosed with de novo metastatic breast cancer from January 2010 to December 2015 were extracted from the SEER database,and the patients were randomly divided into a modeling group(n=528)and a validation group(n=227)at a ratio of 7∶3.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed using the modeling group to integrate the selected independent predictors and construct a nomogram.The ROC curve and C index were used to evaluate the model,and the calibration curve was drawn to compare the consistency between the actual results and the predicted results of the nomogram.Finally,the internal validation of the model was performed in the validation group.Results Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that 9 independent risk factors affecting overall survival included race,breast cancer subtype,T stage,chemotherapy,primary tumor surgery and distant metastasis(bone,lung,liver,brain).Using these factors,a nomogram was constructed;in the modeling group,the C index of the nomogram was 0.723(95％CI:0.696-0.750),and in the validation group,the C index was 0.700(95％CI:0.653-0.747).The calibration curves of the modeling group and the validation group showed that the nomogram accurately predicted the probability of overall survival,which was close to the observation results.Conclusion The nomogram constructed in this study can predict the overall survival of young women with metastatic breast cancer.Although more studies are needed to verify it,it can be used as a tool to guide patients in personalized treatment.关键词
乳腺肿瘤/肿瘤转移/SEER数据库/列线图/预后Key words
Breast cancer/Tumor metastasis/SEER database/Nomogram/Prognosis分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
赵宝,单宏杰,郑璐..基于SEER数据库构建年轻女性新发转移性乳腺癌患者的预后列线图[J].医学信息,2025,38(18):1-6,6.基金项目
中国乳腺肿瘤青年学者科研项目-吴阶平基金(编号:320.6750.2021-10-25) （编号:320.6750.2021-10-25）
