中国草地学报2025，Vol.47Issue(9)：95-104,10.DOI:10.16742/j.zgcdxb.20240407
气候变化情景下西藏三种棘豆属植物潜在分布格局分析
Analysis of Potential Distribution Patterns of Three Oxytropis Species in Xizang under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
Oxytropis is a dominant poisonous weed in Xizang′s grassland,posing serious threats to eco-system health and livestock production.To evaluate the potential distribution,key environmental drivers,and spatial pattern shifts of three Oxytropis species in Xizang,sample data and environmental variables were selected through correlation analysis,and the MaxEnt model was applied to predict species distribu-tions under current and future climate scenarios.The results showed that temperature,precipitation,human activity,and elevation were the main factors shaping distribution patterns.For O.ochrocephala,the human footprint index,annual temperature range,mean temperature of the coldest quarter,and precipi-tation in the coldest quarter were the most influential variables.The distribution of O.falcipoides was mainly driven by the annual temperature range,precipitation in both the coldest and warmest quarters,and the temperature seasonality.For O.proboscidea,precipitation in the warmest quarter,annual temperature range,mean temperature of the warmest quarter,and elevation were the key determinants.Compared with current climate conditions,projections under future(2041-2060)three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)indicated a decreasing trend in suitable habitat for O.ochrocephala and O.falcata,while suitable habitat for O.glacialis is expected to expand.关键词
气候变化/人类活动/棘豆属/有毒植物/最大熵模型/适生区域Key words
Climate change/Human activities/Oxytropis/Toxic plants/Maximum entropy model/Suitable habitat分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
蔡志远,张飞宇,曲家鹏,刘永杰..气候变化情景下西藏三种棘豆属植物潜在分布格局分析[J].中国草地学报,2025,47(9):95-104,10.基金项目
国家林业和草原局行业科技项目"青藏高原草原修复技术集成研究"(LC2022-002) （LC2022-002）
国家自然科学基金项目(32471603) （32471603）
