灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(4)：51-61,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.04.009
基于不同组合模型的川西滑坡易发性评价不确定性分析
Uncertainty Analysis of Landslides Susceptibility Assessment in Western Sichuan Based on Different Combination Models
摘要
Abstract
The Western Sichuan region is situated at the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau and is character-ized by complex geological and environmental conditions.Landslides in this area are known for their high fre-quency,widespread occurrence,and significant hazards.Therefore,it is essential to carefully select appropriate evaluation factors and models to ensure the scientific accuracy and rigor of landslide susceptibility assessment.First,the landslide and non-landslide samples are divided into model training and verifying dataset.Then,inde-pendence and significance tests are utilized to select ten evaluation factors out of a total of fifteen that influence landslide susceptibility.Furthermore,we use three single models(frequency ratio(FR),information value(IV),certainty factor(CF))and three coupled models,with each model combined with the logistic regression model(FR-LR,IV-LR,CF-LR)to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment.Finally,frequency ratio,statistics of sus-ceptibility index,and ROC curve analyses are used for comparative analysis and to validate the quality and accu-racy of the assessment results with each model.The results revealed that the AUC values for the six models range from 0.85 to 0.88.The assessment results of the coupled model demonstrated enhanced reasonableness and su-perior accuracy,with the IV-LR model performing the best.The coupled models can effectively reduce the uncer-tainty of assessment results and significantly improve the spatial distribution anomalies that are prone to occur in single models.关键词
川西/滑坡易发性评价/因子筛选/耦合模型/不确定性分析Key words
western Sichuan/landslide susceptibility assessment/factor selection/coupled models/uncertain-ty analysis分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
伍剑波,丁明涛,孙东,杨涛,李强,覃亮,胡骁,罗小惠..基于不同组合模型的川西滑坡易发性评价不确定性分析[J].灾害学,2025,40(4):51-61,11.基金项目
四川省科技计划"基于AI的川藏铁路沿线滑坡灾害风险自动预警模型与应用示范"(2025YFHZ0010) （2025YFHZ0010）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"岷江上游不同山地垂直带聚落区泥石流灾变机制研究"(42371203) （42371203）
四川省阿坝州科技计划"川西山地斜坡地质灾害危险源智能识别与动态风险预测系统研发及示范应用"(R24YYJSYJ0001) （R24YYJSYJ0001）
四川省地质调查研究院科技创新项目"西南复杂山区斜坡地质灾害风险智能评估及自适应评价系统研发"(SCIGS-CZDXM-2024008) （SCIGS-CZDXM-2024008）
四川省自然资源厅科研项目"突发性地质灾害应急救援技术支撑工作机制研究"(KJ-2024-006) （KJ-2024-006）
