浙江电力2025，Vol.44Issue(9)：13-20,8.DOI:10.19585/j.zjdl.202509002
计及风电-光伏出力相关性的新型电力系统可靠性评估
Reliability assessment of modern power systems accounting for the correlation of wind-PV output correlation
摘要
Abstract
The rapid development of modern power systems,driven by large-scale integration of renewable energy,introduces new challenges to grid reliability.To enhance the accuracy of reliability assessment,this paper proposes a novel methodology based on a hybrid Copula model that captures the correlation between wind and photovoltaic(PV)power generation.First,the optimal Copula function is selected using the Akaike information criterion(AIC),Bayesian information criterion(BIC),and squared Euclidean distance,enabling the generation of joint wind-PV output scenarios.Next,a set of reliability assessment indices for modern power systems is established,and evaluations are performed via Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)coupled with importance sampling(IS).Case stud-ies—using historical wind-PV data from a regional grid and a modified IEEE RTS-79 test system—validate the method's accuracy.The analysis further quantifies the impacts of wind-PV capacity ratios and renewable penetra-tion levels on system reliability.关键词
新型电力系统/可靠性评估/Copula函数/风电/光伏Key words
modern power systems/reliability assessment/Copula function/wind power/PV引用本文复制引用
孙怡文,邢海军,梅丘梅,全文斌,郭啟振,庄世杰..计及风电-光伏出力相关性的新型电力系统可靠性评估[J].浙江电力,2025,44(9):13-20,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52007112) （52007112）
