草业科学2025，Vol.42Issue(9)：2166-2177,12.DOI:10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2024-0258
新疆天然草地退化风险评价指标体系的构建及应用
Construction and application of evaluation indicator system for degradation risk of natural grassland in Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
Grassland resources are currently under double pressure from human activities and climate change,leading to increasingly severe degradation.Accurately assessing grassland degradation risk has become essential for studying natural grassland ecosystems and is critical for formulating scientific protection and management measures to promote sustainable utilization of grassland resources.In this study,indicators were selected based on the"pressure-state-response"(PSR)model.Indicators weights were calculated using the entropy method via the SPSSAU system,and the natural grassland ecosystem health index for Xinjiang from 2000 to 2018 was calculated using ArcGIS software.The potential for grassland degradation was characterized by degradation risk,and the 19-year trend of the health index was used to classify and assess degradation risk levels,analyzing spatial patterns,and explore the reasons for its changes.After expert opinions,16 indicators were finalized,with economic density and per capita GDP having the highest weights of 0.112 0 and 0.105 8,respectively.The health index values of Xinjiang from 2000 to 2018 ranged from 0.0304 to 0.2265.Some natural grassland ecosystems in regions including Altay,Tacheng,western Yili Valley,eastern Tien Shan Mountains,and the north and south sides of the Kunlun Mountain Range exhibited degradation risks.However,the proportion of grassland with improvement potential in Xinjiang exceeded that at risk of degradation.In southern Xinjiang,areas at degradation risk were strongly associated with rapid changes in anthropogenic factors such as livestock numbers and population.Additionally,rising temperatures in Altay and Tacheng,combined with decreasing precipitation,may further aggravate grassland degradation risk.关键词
生态系统/PSR模型/GIS技术/熵值法/草地退化风险评价Key words
ecosystems/PSR modelling/GIS technology/entropy method/grassland degradation risk evaluation引用本文复制引用
秦宝亚,井长青,加沙尔..新疆天然草地退化风险评价指标体系的构建及应用[J].草业科学,2025,42(9):2166-2177,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42161024) （42161024）
新疆维吾尔自治区财政林草科技项目(XJLYKJ-2023-18) （XJLYKJ-2023-18）
新疆维吾尔自治区财政厅林草专项(XJLYKJ-2023-16) （XJLYKJ-2023-16）
