草业科学2025，Vol.42Issue(9)：2230-2243,14.DOI:10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2024-0364
基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS的狗牙根在中国的适宜性区划研究
Study on suitability zoning of Cynodon dactylon in China based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS
摘要
Abstract
Cynodon dactylon is not only widely used in landscaping and animal husbandry,but also plays an important role in ecological protection and environmental governance.This study utilized the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model to predict the suitable habitats of C.dactylon under different climate scenarios in China,aiming to understand the potential impacts of climate change on its distribution.The findings provide a theoretical basis for the management,introduction,and cultivation of C.dactylon.Based on 584 geographical distribution points and 7 environmental variables,the MaxEnt model projected the current(1970s-2000s)and future distributions of C.dactylon under climate conditions for the 2050s and 2070s.Results indicate:1)The AUC values of the MaxEnt model are all greater than 0.9,indicating that the simulation results of the model are highly reliable;2)Key environmental variables influencing the distribution patterns include minimum temperature of the coldest month(bio6),elevation(Alt),precipitation in the driest month(bio 14),and diurnal temperature range(bio2);3)The current total suitable area for C.dactylon is approximately 3.3483 million km2.In the future,under climate scenarios SSPs126,SSPs245,and SSPs585 for the 2050s,suitable areas increase by 0.60 million,1.23 million,and 1.26 million km2 respectively.By the 2070s,suitable areas increase by 0.20 million,1.07 million,and 1.33 million km2 under the same scenarios;4)The preservation rates of suitable habitats range from 73.36％～74.95％in the future,with the centroid of C.dactylon shifting from Chongqing to Sichuan.This research holds significant implications for understanding the changes in suitable habitats of C.dactylon and its responses to climate change.关键词
狗牙根/MaxEnt模型/气候变化/生物气候因子/适生区预测Key words
Cynodon dactylon/MaxEnt model/climate change/bioclimatic factors/prediction of suitable growth areas引用本文复制引用
刘恬,徐京亚,郑轶琦..基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS的狗牙根在中国的适宜性区划研究[J].草业科学,2025,42(9):2230-2243,14.基金项目
河南省自然科学基金项目(18230041001) （18230041001）
