财经理论与实践2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：2-9,8.DOI:10.16339/j.cnki.hdxbcjb.2025.05.001
企业尾部系统风险具有供应链传染效应吗?
Does Enterprises' Systematic Tail Risk Have a Supply Chain Contagion Effect?
摘要
Abstract
Based on the information of the top five customers and suppliers disclosed by Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed enterprises from 2010 to 2022,a supply chain system of"focal enterprises-upstream and downstream enterprises"is constructed to examine the supply chain contagion effect of sys-tematic tail risks in enterprises.The results show that systematic tail risks exhibit a significant supply chain contagion effect,where an increase in systematic tail risks of upstream and downstream enterprises leads to a corresponding change in the systematic tail risks of focal enterprises.The systematic tail risks of upstream and downstream enterprises influence the systematic tail risks of focal enterprises through the channel of operational performance,and the good supply chain efficiency of focal enterprises can sig-nificantly mitigate the contagion effect of systematic tail risks.The contagion effect of systematic tail risks of upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain is stronger for focal enterprises with smaller scale,weaker bargaining power and state-owned nature.Accordingly,it is suggested that enter-prises should enhance the supervision and prevention of risk contagion within the supply chain system,improve the supply chain cooperation mechanism,and optimize inventory management strategies.This paper provides decision-making reference to ensure the stability of enterprise production and operation.关键词
尾部系统风险/供应链/风险传染/供应链效率Key words
systematic tail risk/supply chain/risk contagion/supply chain efficiency分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李政,李纪欣,张鲁瑶..企业尾部系统风险具有供应链传染效应吗?[J].财经理论与实践,2025,46(5):2-9,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(24FJYB027) （24FJYB027）
国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BTJ014,24BJY084) （21BTJ014,24BJY084）
