财经理论与实践2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：80-87,8.DOI:10.16339/j.cnki.hdxbcjb.2025.05.010
人口老龄化对地方财政风险的影响:自缚还是破茧?
The Impact of Population Aging on Local Fiscal Risks:Self-Binding or Breaking the Cocoon?
摘要
Abstract
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2023,this paper em-pirically tests the nonlinear impact of population aging on local fiscal risks.The study finds that:there is a stable"U"-shaped relationship between population aging and local fiscal risks,which is more significant in regions with less advanced industrial structures,medium-frequency attention to the digital economy,and located central and western regions;the population aging significantly affects local fiscal risks through entrepreneurship,innovation capacity and economic efficiency a-mong the regions;and effective labor supply and consumption demand of the elderly have a nega-tive moderating effect on the"U"-shaped relationship.To this end,efforts should be made to monitor the aging of the population at different levels and respond to the impact in accordance with local conditions;make rational use of entrepreneurship and innovation mechanisms to im-prove the quality and efficiency of the economy;release the dividend of experience through flexi-ble supply,stimulate domestic demand and ease fiscal risks.关键词
人口老龄化/地方财政风险/非线性关系/调节效应Key words
population aging/local fiscal risk/nonlinear relationship/moderating effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘建民,凌惠馨,刘嘉意..人口老龄化对地方财政风险的影响:自缚还是破茧?[J].财经理论与实践,2025,46(5):80-87,8.基金项目
湖南省哲学社会科学基金重大项目(22ZDAJ009)(湘财教指[2022]75号) （22ZDAJ009）
