长江科学院院报2025，Vol.42Issue(10)：54-63,10.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20240856
长江干流水温长时序重构及变化特征
Long-Term Reconstruction and Variation Characteristics of Water Temperature in Mainstream Yangtze River
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Due to climate change and human activities,water temperature in the Yangtze River basin is gradually increasing.Although the Hydrological Yearbooks accurately record water temperature data,the lack of long-term continuous observations and limited observation years make it difficult to precisely quantify and character-ize long-term trends,posing potential challenges to the stability and health of its ecosystem.[Methods]This study innovatively combined measured water-temperature data from the Hydrological Yearbooks with ERA5-Land climate reanalysis data,employed the XGBoost machine-learning algorithm,and developed a water-temperature estimation model based on meteorological and hydrological variables to reconstruct daily water-temperature data for seven hydrological stations along the Yangtze River mainstream from 1980 to 2022.[Results](1)At Zhutuo,Hankou,and Datong stations,the model RMSE and R2 values were 0.831-1.021 ℃ and 0.951-0.987,respectively.(2)From Zhutuo to Datong,the warming rate was 0.20-0.32 ℃ per decade.(3)At Yichang Station,the correlation between water temperature and water level reached R2=0.666.(4)Compared with 1980-1996,water temperature increased by 0.38-0.75 ℃ during 1997-2012 and continued to rise by 0.17-0.38 ℃ from 2013 to 2022.[Conclusion](1)The XGBoost machine-learning model performs excellently and is robust in capturing river ther-mal dynamics.(2)Among the seven mainstream stations,those connected to lakes show the greatest warming.(3)Monthly-scale analysis indicates that water-temperature rise is synchronous with air temperature and surface down-ward long-wave radiation,while changes in water level lag behind.(4)Along-channel water-temperature changes in the last decade are more pronounced than in earlier periods.关键词
水温/XGBoost模型/序列重构/趋势分析/长江干流Key words
water temperature/XGBoost model/sequence reconstruction/trend analysis/mainstream Yangtze River分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王盛辉..长江干流水温长时序重构及变化特征[J].长江科学院院报,2025,42(10):54-63,10.基金项目
长江生态环境保护修复联合研究(二期)项目(2022-LHYJ-02-0502-01) （二期）
