当代经济科学2025，Vol.47Issue(5)：1-18,18.DOI:10.20069/j.cnki.DJKX.202505001
稳经济目标下中国双支柱政策的协调配合策略
Coordination Strategies of China's Dual Pillar Policies Under the Goal of Economic Stability
摘要
Abstract
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed ensuring the stable operation of the financial market while achieving effective improvements in the quality and reasonable growth in the economy's quantity.However,the traditional single regulatory framework centered on monetary policy by the central bank has weaknesses in effectively preventing financial risks and maintaining stable asset prices.Introducing a dual-pillar regulatory framework for macroprudential policy can help address the shortcomings of the traditional regulatory framework. This paper employs a DAG method based on the PC-max algorithm to determine the short-term constraint matrix of the MH-TVC-SVAR-SV model.Then,it examines the impact of China's monetary policy and macroprudential policy on traditional central bank policy objectives and asset prices using a three-dimensional cumulative impulse response function,and subsequently explores coordination strategies of the dual pillar policy.Research has found that price-based and quantity-based monetary policies can,respectively,cause output growth and decrease,and both can lead to price decline,rising housing prices,and falling stock prices.The loan-to-value ratio policy can lead to output growth and price decline,while the statutory reserve requirement ratio policy has the opposite effect.Both types of macroprudential policies can cause an increase in housing prices and stock prices.Therefore,the central bank should adopt price-based rather than quantity-based monetary policies to regulate output,and the shortcomings of both types of monetary policies in controlling price can be compensated through countercyclical regulation of the statutory reserve ratio policy.In addition,both the loan-to-value ratio policy and the statutory reserve requirement ratio policy can guide changes in the same direction for housing prices and stock prices.Based on the above results,coordinated strategies for the dual pillar policy are constructed:during periods of economic recession and overheating,expansionary and contractionary price-based monetary policies should be adopted,respectively,to comprehensively and structurally regulate macroeconomy.On the one hand,this helps stabilize output and housing price fluctuations and suppresses the pro-cyclical self-strengthening of the"housing price-output"spiral caused by the balance sheet effect.On the other hand,structural price-based monetary policies should be used to provide financing support for emerging industries to promote the shift of economic focus towards emerging industries rather than the real estate industry,guide industrial structure optimization,and achieve cross-cycle adjustment to promote the healthy and stable development of the economy in the medium and long term period.During the period of economic recovery,the interest rate level during the economic recession should be extended and accompanied by a slightly adjusted contractionary loan-to-value ratio policy to maintain the momentum of output growth and curb the risk of real-estate bubble.During the period of economic stagflation,expansionary price-based monetary policy should be adopted for global regulation,contributing to stimulating output growth,curbing prices and stabilizing house prices. Compared with existing literature,this paper has the following extensions.Firstly,by applying the PC-max algorithm to construct directed acyclic graphs,the accuracy of traditional PC algorithms is improved,and the risk of bidirectional edges is avoided.Secondly,a directed acyclic graph based on the PC-max algorithm is used to identify the contemporaneous relationships between endogenous variables.This makes the priori setting of the short-term constraint matrix objective and overcomes the limitation of the recursive SVAR model's short-term constraint matrix being a lower triangular matrix.Thirdly,existing literature on the impact of macroprudential policies has focused chiefly on asset price variables.This study fills the gap in the existing literature,which lacks research on the impact of macroprudential policies on traditional central bank policy objectives. This study analyses the impact of single policy regulation of monetary policy and macroprudential policy,and subsequently provides coordinated strategies for monetary policy and macroprudential policy.It is expected to provide a data reference and decision-making basis for the government to formulate dual-pillar regulation strategies,helping to build China's"economic security"guarantee system and economic risk prevention system.关键词
货币政策/宏观审慎政策/宏观经济/资产价格/双支柱调控Key words
monetary policy/macroprudential policy/macroeconomy/asset prices/dual-pillar regulation引用本文复制引用
金春雨,刘鹏宇..稳经济目标下中国双支柱政策的协调配合策略[J].当代经济科学,2025,47(5):1-18,18.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"经济下行压力下的稳增长防滞胀研究"(22AJL016). （22AJL016）
