摘要
Abstract
Global LNG shipping is predominantly governed by long-term time charter contracts,although charter terms have grown more flexible in recent years.More than 90%of LNG shipping capacity is under lessee control.The market has historically been characterized by low liquidity,though it has gradually improved over recent years.LNG vessel technology is advancing rapidly with significant performance disparities across generations and freight pricing structures remain complex.With sufficient near-term LNG market capacity,the freight market has been on a consistent decline and is anticipated to recover from March 2025 onward.Newbuilding order activity remains subdued,yet newbuilding prices persist at elevated levels.The LNG shipping market is projected to shift from a state of oversupply to a balanced supply-demand equilibrium during 2025-2027,followed by a tightening market after 2028,driven by numerous LNG project commencements and a shortfall in newbuilding orders.The ultimate trajectory of market development will continue to be shaped by critical risk factors such as the pace of LNG project commissioning,geopolitical developments,the rate of older vessel phase-outs,and the growth of LNG demand.The paper proposes that market participants should enhance risk monitoring across the industrial chain,optimize their vessel portfolios in a timely manner,and strategically plan for the scrapping and upgrading of older vessels.关键词
LNG贸易/LNG海运/LNG运输船/海运供需/市场展望Key words
LNG trade/LNG shipping/LNG vessel/shipping supply and demand/market outlook分类
管理科学
