工业技术经济2025，Vol.44Issue(10)：32-42,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2025.10.004
大模型对人工智能产业创新的链式孵化机制
The Chained incubation Mechanism of Large Models on AI Industrial Innovation
摘要
Abstract
From the chained incubation perspective,this study utilizes panel data from China's 31 provinces and municipali-ties from 2015 to 2024 and employs Double Machine Learning(DML)to examine how large model technology impacts AI industry innovation.Results show significant positive total effects,with 31.12%transmitted through"technology→ecosystem→innovation"pathways.Blocking any link reduces the indirect effect to zero,confirming chained incubation necessity.The ecosystem acts as the core intermediary,exhibiting strong technological drive and weak ecological transformation characteristics,with the conversion effi-ciency from ecosystem to innovation being the key bottleneck.Further analysis indicates that large model technology and the indus-trial ecosystem exhibit non-linear synergistic effects,with the marginal effect of technology on innovation increasing as the ecosys-tem matures.In regions with low ecosystem maturity,technology has already become the core engine driving innovation indepen-dently.Regional heterogeneity is significant:in the eastern region,the chain-based transmission pathway is intact,with indirect effects accounting for 29.61%;in the central region,transmission fails due to the absence of an ecosystem intermediary;the wes-tern region exhibits negative effects due to technical-ecological mismatches;and the northeastern region lacks established collabora-tive mechanisms.Based on these findings,the study proposes recommendations to address the bottleneck in ecological-to-innova-tion conversion,including establishing a linked infrastructure of computing power,incubation,and open-source collaboration,implementing tiered regional policies,and mitigating risks of ecological monopolization,to enhance chain incubation mechanisms and drive the innovative development of the AI industry.关键词
大模型/链式孵化/人工智能产业创新/双重机器学习/产业生态/转化效率/系统性创新/非线性协同效应Key words
large-scale model/chained incubation/artificial intelligence industrial innovation/double machine learning/industrial ecosystem/conversion efficiency/systematic innovation/nonlinear synergy effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
郑庆花,肖翠仙..大模型对人工智能产业创新的链式孵化机制[J].工业技术经济,2025,44(10):32-42,11.基金项目
广西哲学社会科学规划研究课题"数字赋能广西产业链创新链深度融合的动力机制与路径研究"(项目编号:22FJY024) （项目编号:22FJY024）
梧州学院博士基金项目"数字经济促进现代化产业体系建设的效应测度研究"(项目编号:2023A001). （项目编号:2023A001）
