华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：78-88,11.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025076
基于Budyko-SD模型的区域农业用水演变特征分析
Analysis of Evolution Characteristics of Regional Agricultural Water Use Based on Budyko-SD Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Agricultural water security is crucial for regional food security,and scientific assessment of the evolu-tion characteristics of regional agricultural water use has become an important basic issue to ensure the coordinated and sustainable development of the complex system of regional water resources,social economy,and ecological environment.[Methods]In order to deeply analyze the evolution characteristics and future trends of regional agricultural water use,ac-cording to the similarity assumption between agricultural water use variation and natural water cycle process as described by Budyko model,a Budyko model of optimal allocation of regional agricultural water use based on the principle of maximizing the efficiency of water resources utilization was constructed.It was combined with the system dynamics(SD)model,and the Budyko-SD coupling model for analyzing the evolution characteristics and future trend of regional agricultural water use was proposed.[Results]Overall,agricultural production loss per unit water shortage in Anhui Province was lower than that of the non-agricultural sector.The agricultural water use guarantee level in northern and central Anhui was higher than that of the non-agricultural sector due to the dominance of agricultural production in Anhui Province,while the opposite was observed in southern Anhui.Agricultural water consumption in Anhui Province showed an upward trend from 2023 to 2026,reaching a peak of 193.8×108 m3 in 2026,and remaining stable in 2027-2030.[Conclusion]In general,the above research results are consistent with the historical characteristics of agricultural water use and the statistical data of social economic and indus-trial development in Anhui Province,which further verifies the rationality and validity of the model results.The findings can provide a scientific basis for the formulation and implementation of agricultural water use and industrial development schemes.关键词
农业用水安全/水资源优化配置/Budyko模型/系统动力学/安徽省Key words
agricultural water security/optimal allocation of water resources/Budyko model/system dynamics/Anhui Prov-ince分类
自科综合引用本文复制引用
吴成国,童飞,金菊良,蒋尚明,周玉良,张礼兵..基于Budyko-SD模型的区域农业用水演变特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,46(5):78-88,11.基金项目
水利水资源安徽省重点实验室开放研究基金(2023SKJ02) （2023SKJ02）
国家自然科学基金项目(U2240223,52209012,42271084) （U2240223,52209012,42271084）
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2408085ME135). （2408085ME135）
