河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.44Issue(6)：75-82,8.DOI:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2025030058
基于AISM-MICMAC模型的尾矿库溃坝原因分析及防控研究
Cause analysis and prevention of tailings dam failures based on the AISM-MICMAC Model
摘要
Abstract
Objectives To explore the relationships among the causes of tailings dam failures,examine the evolution paths of different factors,analyze the driving-dependence relationships,identify the factors with high driving force and high dependence,and propose corresponding strategies.Methods The AISM-MICMAC Model was employed to systematically analyze the hierarchical relationships and categorical distri-bution of influencing factors.Results Based on accident case analysis,69 potential factors contributing to tailings dam failures were identified and classified into 10 levels,including direct,intermediate,and root causes.Factors at the bottom of the structure were defined as root causes,while those at the top were di-rect causes.The driving force and dependence values of the factors were calculated,and a driving-dependence diagram was constructed.Conclusions The diagram revealed the hierarchical levels of the fac-tors,their evolutionary relationships,and the mutual transmission of influences.Root causes exhibited high driving force and low dependence,while direct causes showed low driving force and high dependence.The four-quadrant diagram effectively visualized the driving-dependence relationships,helping to identify key factors and propose targeted prevention and control measures.关键词
尾矿库/溃坝/AISM-MICMAC模型/层级划分Key words
tailings/dam break/AISM-MICMAC model/hierarchical division分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
叶佳文,刘珮勋,李海港,石萍萍,王雅莉..基于AISM-MICMAC模型的尾矿库溃坝原因分析及防控研究[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,44(6):75-82,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3012200) （2023YFC3012200）
