南京大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.61Issue(3)：465-474,10.DOI:10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2025.03.010
华南地区春季极端降水与地形的关系及未来预估
Present and future of extreme precipitation during the spring season in South China
摘要
Abstract
This study investigated the characteristics and future changes of extreme precipitation in South China using convection-permitting downscaling simulations.A positive correlation was found between extreme precipitation and elevation,particularly at lower to moderate topographic heights.The relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature generally exhibited a hook-shaped pattern.Under a warmer climate,extreme precipitation was projected to increase more significantly at higher elevations.Regions experiencing increased extreme precipitation showed elevated levels of convective available potential energy(CAPE)and reduced convective inhibition(CIN),indicating a more unstable atmosphere conducive to severe weather.Further analysis revealed a strong association between future changes in extreme precipitation and factors such as topographic height and large-scale atmospheric conditions.The rate of extreme precipitation increase was found to be between one and two times the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling.关键词
春季极端降水/华南地区/地形作用/风暴背景场Key words
extreme precipitation in spring/South China/topographic effect/storm background field分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
倪乘岚,汪曙光,汤剑平..华南地区春季极端降水与地形的关系及未来预估[J].南京大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,61(3):465-474,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42275055) （42275055）
