南京大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.61Issue(3)：475-488,14.DOI:10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2025.03.011
全球变暖对2022年长江流域极端热浪影响的模拟研究
Simulation of the extreme heat wave in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 under global warming
摘要
Abstract
Extreme heat wave events are more destructive than traditional climate events and have developed rapidly in the world in recent years.The Yangtze River Basin is a climate-sensitive area,so it is of great significance for event prevention and control to analyze its characteristics and evolution trend under possible future climate conditions.In the summer of 2022,the Yangtze River Basin experienced a heat wave that was unprecedented in intensity,duration,and scope.In this paper,an extreme heat wave event in the Yangtze River Basin from July 20 to August 30,2022 was simulated.Based on the combined Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)multi-model and multi-scenario set prediction results,Pseudo Global Warming(PGW)method was adopted.The changes of heat waves in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 under SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios were simulated and predicted.The simulation results show that:(1)the regional climate model can well reproduce the spatio-temporal evolution of the heat wave process in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022.(2)under different global warming scenarios(SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585),the intensity and area of heat waves in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 are significantly enhanced.Under SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585,the heat wave intensity increases by 3,5 and 7℃respectively,and the heat wave area also doubles under SSP585.(3)under the SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,the West Pacific Subtropical High and the South Asian High are also increasing,while the downward long-wave radiation is also increasing.The increase in the area and intensity of heat waves in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 is closely related to the changes in atmospheric circulation and radiation amount.关键词
热浪/伪全球变暖/气候变化/数值模拟Key words
heatwave/Pseudo-Global Warming/global warming/numerical simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨新欢,汤剑平..全球变暖对2022年长江流域极端热浪影响的模拟研究[J].南京大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,61(3):475-488,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2023YFF0805404) （2023YFF0805404）
