热带地理2025，Vol.45Issue(9)：1525-1538,14.DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20240590
可再生能源开发如何影响中国高耗能产品出口格局?
Influence of Renewable Energy Development on the Export Patterns of China's High Energy-Intensive Products
摘要
Abstract
Renewable energy development is critical for advancing energy transitions and addressing climate change,both of which will likely trigger substantial transformations in industrial geography and trade patterns.Previous studies have investigated the impacts of renewable energy on manufacturing sectors from both production and consumption perspectives.In addition,the trade patterns of energy-intensive products have been analyzed in terms of industrial relocation,embodied carbon flows,and carbon leakage mechanisms.However,few studies have explored how renewable energy influences the export of high energy-intensive products.Based on province-product-destination trade data from 2011 to 2020,we used spatial analytical methods to characterize the geographical distribution of China's energy-intensive product exports across origins and destinations.We then applied fixed-effect regression models to empirically assess the impacts of provincial-level renewable energy on these exports.The results indicate that China's renewable energy generation is geographically concentrated in the northwestern provinces,whereas energy-intensive manufacturing exports are predominantly located in eastern coastal regions,revealing a spatial mismatch between the energy supply and industrial demand.While China's high energy-intensive exports remain predominantly destined for developed economies,the growth momentum in recent years has been increasingly propelled by demand from developing countries.In addition,renewable energy development promoted the export of high-energy-intensive products by increasing the proportion of energy-intensive industries in provincial industrial structures.Renewable energy development in China's eastern and central provinces promoted high energy-intensive product exports,whereas no substantial effect was observed in the western provinces.Superior grid infrastructure,stringent low-carbon policies,and higher foreign direct investment levels all enhanced the positive impact of renewable energy on energy-intensive exports,whereas greater agglomeration of energy-intensive industries demonstrated no favorable effect.Carbon mitigation policies in the destination countries strengthened the positive relationship between China's renewable energy and energy-intensive exports,whereas greater renewable energy deployment in these countries exerted a negative moderating effect.Compared with other high energy-intensive products,those subject to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)derived greater benefits from renewable energy development.This study contributes to the literature by establishing a spatial framework for understanding how renewable energy development affects energy-intensive product exports.In addition,this study clarifies the moderating effects of multidimensional factors at the provincial,product,and destination country levels,thereby providing a knowledge foundation for energy-intensive industries to use renewable energy for their green transitions while maintaining export competitiveness.This study demonstrates that the effects of renewable energy on energy-intensive product exports across provinces,product categories,and destination countries are heterogeneous.To maintain export competitiveness,three essential measures must be implemented:electricity market mechanisms and infrastructure improvement,clarification of destination countries'carbon reduction policies,and renewable energy-integrated production model development for energy-intensive industries.关键词
可再生能源/高耗能产品/碳强度/碳关税/出口格局/中国Key words
renewable energy,high energy-intensive product,carbon emissions intensity,Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,spatial export pattern/China分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
顾天莉,贺灿飞,朱向东..可再生能源开发如何影响中国高耗能产品出口格局?[J].热带地理,2025,45(9):1525-1538,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42171169) （42171169）
广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD25YYJ21、2025GZF21) （GD25YYJ21、2025GZF21）
