生态学报2025，Vol.45Issue(18)：8821-8836,16.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202411272912
未来气候变化情景下河西走廊生态系统服务变化及其驱动力
The changes of ecosystem services in the Hexi Corridor and their driving forces under future climate change scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Climate change has a significant impact on regional ecosystems.Human dependence on the direct or indirect benefits provided by ecosystems is becoming increasingly stronger.Land cover change is one of the most significant forms of global change,as it can directly alter the structure and functions of ecosystems.Under the combined pressures of increasing land use demands and the impacts of climate change,ecosystems and their service functions have experienced certain levels of degradation at both regional and global scales,while also exacerbating uncertainties in future ecosystem services.Therefore,exploring the changes in ecosystem services and their driving factors under different climate change scenarios is of great importance for addressing climate change challenges and achieving sustainable development at the regional level.Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSP-RCP)scenarios,the SD-PLUS-InVEST model was used to predict land use changes,ecosystem service changes,and their interrelationships in the Hexi Corridor by 2040 under the SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585 scenarios.Additionally,the Random Forest algorithm was applied to analyze the driving factors affecting ecosystem services and their correlations.The results indicated that:(1)By 2040,land use changes in the Hexi Corridor under the three climate change scenarios exhibited different trends,with unused land area decreasing in all scenarios.Under the SSP126 scenario,cultivated land area decreased,while grassland area significantly increases,showing a trend of expansion towards the northwest,indicating good potential for ecological restoration.Under the SSP585 scenario,cultivated land and construction land areas increased substantially,potentially exerting greater pressure on ecosystem services.(2)By 2040,habitat quality,soil retention,carbon sequestration,and water yield showed an upward trend across all three scenarios.Spatially,high-value areas are mainly concentrated in the southern Qilian Mountains,with the SSP126 scenario demonstrating the best ecosystem provisioning and regulating effects.The relationships among ecosystem services are synergistic,though the strength of these synergies weakens.(3)The response relationships between different driving factors and ecosystem services varied:HQ,SR,CS,and WY exhibited negative correlations with temperature,evapotranspiration,and land use intensity,while showing positive correlations with precipitation and topographic factors.Population and economic factors were negatively correlated with HQ but positively correlated with CS and WY.These findings provide a theoretical basis for formulating future ecological restoration and management strategies in the Hexi Corridor and offer scientific insights into understanding the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and their driving mechanisms.关键词
河西走廊/SSP-RCP/SD模型/PLUS模型/气候变化/随机森林Key words
Hexi Corridor/SSP-RCP/SD model/PLUS model/climate change/random forest引用本文复制引用
任玥颖,贾夏,赵永华,王欢元,单立山,张鹏,司绍诚..未来气候变化情景下河西走廊生态系统服务变化及其驱动力[J].生态学报,2025,45(18):8821-8836,16.基金项目
国家自然科学基金联合重点项目(U23A2061) （U23A2061）
陕西省科技创新团队(2024RS-CXTD-55) （2024RS-CXTD-55）
