上海预防医学2025，Vol.37Issue(8)：643-648,668,7.DOI:10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2025.250217
2010-2024年云南省昆明市流行性感冒季节性流行特征分析
An analysis of the seasonal epidemic characteristics of influenza in Kunming City of Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2024
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To characterize the seasonal patterns of influenza in Kunming City,Yunnan Province before,during,and after the COVID-19 pandemic,and provide scientific evidence for optimizing influenza prevention and control strategies.[Methods]Influenza-like illness(ILI)and etiological surveillance data for influenza from the 14th week of 2010 to the 13th week of 2024 in Kunming City of Yunnan Province were collected.Harmonic regression models were constructed to analyze the epidemic characteristics and seasonal patterns of influenza before(2010/2011‒2019/2020 influenza seasons),during(2020/2021‒2022/2023 influenza seasons),and after(2023/2024 influenza season)the COVID-19 pandemic.[Results]Before the COVID-19 pandemic,influenza in Kunming City mainly exhibited an annual cyclic pattern without a significant semi-annual periodicity,peaking from December to February of the next year,with an epidemic duration of 20‒30 weeks.During the pandemic,influenza seasonality shifted,with an increase in semi-annual periodicity and an approximate one month delay in annual peaks.However,after the pandemic,the annual amplitude of influenza increased compared with that before the pandemic,and the epidemic duration extended by about one month.Although the annual peak largely reverted to the pre-pandemic levels,the annual peaks for different influenza subtypes/lineages had not fully recovered.[Conclusion]Influenza seasonality in Kunming City underwent substantial alterations following the COVID-19 pandemic and has not yet fully reverted to pre-pandemic levels.Continuous surveillance on different subtypes/lineages of influenza viruses remains essential,and prevention and control strategies should be adjusted and optimized in a timely manner based on current epidemic trends.关键词
流感/季节性/昆明市/防控策略Key words
influenza/seasonality/Kunming City/prevention and control strategy分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
胡泽鑫,代敏,李文龙,王铭韩,邓晓伟,丁越,余宏杰,杨娟,刘宏..2010-2024年云南省昆明市流行性感冒季节性流行特征分析[J].上海预防医学,2025,37(8):643-648,668,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(82373639) （82373639）
上海市市级重大科技专项重大突发传染病防控关键核心技术研究(ZD2021CY001) （ZD2021CY001）
