同济大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.53Issue(10)：1527-1534,8.DOI:10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.24148
考虑降雨强度时间模式不确定性的边坡可靠度分析
Slope Reliability Assessment Considering Uncertainty Associated with Rainfall Intensity Temporal Patterns
摘要
Abstract
A novel approach for slope reliability assessment considering uncertainty associated with rainfall intensity temporal patterns is proposed.Stochastic rainfall sequences considering rainfall intensity temporal patterns are generated based on skewness and kurtosis.These series are incorporated into a coupled seepage-stability model of slope,and Monte Carlo simulation is employed to estimate slope failure probability.The proposed approach is applied to a conceptual slope in Zhejiang Province to evaluate the impact of rainfall intensity time patterns on slope failure probability and failure time.The results show that,under the same total rainfall and duration,early-peaking and relatively uniform rainfall patterns lead to greater infiltration,reduce soil strength,and thus increase the likelihood of slope failure while shortening the time to failure.These findings highlight the importance of incorporating rainfall intensity temporal patterns in landslide early warning systems.关键词
边坡可靠度分析/降雨强度时间模式/偏度/峰度/蒙特卡洛模拟Key words
slope reliability analysis/rainfall intensity temporal pattern/skewness/kurtosis/Monte Carlo simulation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
何正迎,黄雨..考虑降雨强度时间模式不确定性的边坡可靠度分析[J].同济大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,53(10):1527-1534,8.基金项目
上海市科委技术标准项目(21DZ2207200)、国家自然科学基金重点项目(41831291) （21DZ2207200）
