水土保持学报2025，Vol.39Issue(5)：219-233,15.DOI:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.05.021
基于NEX-GDDP-CMIP6的不同温升情景下中国气候要素变化
Changes in Climate Elements in China under Different Warming Scenarios Based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]With global warming exerting persistent impacts on the climate system,this study investigates the evolving trends and spatial patterns of climatic elements across China under different warming scenarios,aiming to provide a scientific foundation for formulating differentiated climate adaptation strategies.[Methods]High-resolution data from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)were utilized to assess changes in climatic elements across China under global warming scenarios ranging from 1.5℃to 5.0℃.Emphasis was placed on analyzing trends and spatial distribution of six key climate variables.[Results]The rate of land surface warming in China exceeded the global average,and the magnitude of temperature rise showed an intensifying trend relative to global temperature increases.When the global temperature rose by 1.5℃,China's annual mean temperature increased by approximately 1.3℃,whereas under a 5.0℃global warming scenario,this rise reached 5.92℃.The minimum temperatures increased even more markedly,reaching 6.21℃,with significant warming observed in northeast China,north China,and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Precipitation increased significantly with rising temperatures.Under a 3.0℃global warming scenario,70%of regions experienced annual precipitation increases by over 50 mm,with increases exceeding 100 mm in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and northwest China.With warming,the frequency and intensity of extreme high-temperature and precipitation events might intensify.Wind speed and relative humidity show declining trends,potentially affecting wind energy utilization and the regional water vapor cycle.Under a 1.5℃warming scenario,wind speed decreased by about 0.15 m/s,declining to 0.32 m/s under a 5.0℃warming scenario,which was double the decrease in the 1.5℃scenario.Relative humidity declined by 0.34%compared to the reference period when the global temperature rose by 5.0℃,but substantial inter-model uncertainties persisted.[Conclusion]These findings provide a scientific basis for climate adaptation and mitigation policies in China,underscoring the critical need to constrain global temperature rise to address potential climate challenges and reduce future climate risks.关键词
NEX-GDDP-CMIP6/温升情景/气候要素/时空变化/中国Key words
NEX-GDDP-CMIP6/warming scenarios/climatic elements/spatiotemporal variation/China分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
温姗姗,汪辰钰,翟建青,周彪..基于NEX-GDDP-CMIP6的不同温升情景下中国气候要素变化[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(5):219-233,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42005126,42271081) （42005126,42271081）
