水土保持学报2025，Vol.39Issue(5)：309-321,334,14.DOI:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.05.024
基于MOP-PLUS的湖南省三生空间和生境质量动态模拟
Dynamic Simulation of Production-Living-Ecological Space and Habitat Quality in Hunan Province Based on MOP-PLUS
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To explore the future development of production-living-ecological space and evaluate the future habitat quality in Hunan Province,considering both economic and ecological development,which plays an important role in the allocation of land spatial resources and ecological security management.[Methods]Based on the land use data from 1990 to 2020,land use transfer matrix and dynamic degree analysis were used to analyze the composition of the production-living-ecological space in Hunan Province in the past 30 years.The multi-object planning model was used to build different development scenarios,and the PLUS and InVEST models were employed to predict and analyze land use changes under these scenarios.[Results]1)From 1990 to 2020,ecological space accounted for the largest proportion in Hunan Province,approximately 69.44%,followed by production space at about 28.74%,and the smallest proportion was living space.Frequent conversion occurred between production and ecological spaces,while the living space conversion,although smaller in area,had the largest variation.2)All four scenarios showed a trend of a reduction in production and ecological spaces,and an increase in living space.In the scenario prioritizing the development of production and living spaces,the growth of living space was the fastest,with the greatest economic benefit,reaching 1.23 times that of 2020.In the scenarios prioritizing ecological development and natural development,the reduction of ecological space was smaller,with the ecological benefits decreasing by 0.098%and 0.150%,respectively,compared to 2020,but the economic benefits were lower.The balanced and coordinated development scenario of the production-living-ecological space protected ecological space while meeting regional development needs,balancing ecological and economic benefits.3)From 1990 to 2020,the proportion of high-quality habitats in Hunan Province was the largest,with relatively good overall habitat quality,showing little fluctuation but with a downward trend.The simulation predicted a slight decline in habitat quality by 2030.[Conclusion]The habitat quality change in Hunan Province by 2030 is expected to be minor.The balanced and coordinated development of the production-living-ecological space,which considers both economic and ecological benefits,is most suitable for the future development of the region.关键词
三生空间/PLUS/生境质量/湖南省Key words
production-living-ecological space/PLUS/habitat quality/Hunan Province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
金欣宇,赵先超..基于MOP-PLUS的湖南省三生空间和生境质量动态模拟[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(5):309-321,334,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42201230) （42201230）
湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(22A0419) （22A0419）
