中国中医药信息杂志2025，Vol.32Issue(10)：1-6,6.DOI:10.19879/j.cnki.1005-5304.202503318
基于集成模型的不同气候情景下我国红芪潜在分布预测研究
Study on the Potential Distribution of Hedysari Radix in China under Different Climates Based on Integrating Multiple Models
摘要
Abstract
Objective To use multiple model integration to predict the potential distribution of suitable areas for Hedysari Radix in China and the main environmental factors affecting its distribution.Methods Based on 119 geographical distribution points obtained from species distribution databases,and incorporating 19 bioclimatic and topographic factors,a species distribution model was constructed using the Biomod2 software package 3.5-1 version ensemble modeling platform,integrating six algorithms including generalized linear model,gradient boosting machine,random forest,and others.Geographic information system spatial analysis methods were used to quantitatively assess the distribution characteristics of suitable habitats of Hedysari Radix under current climate conditions and under future climate scenarios,while identifying the primary environmental drivers of its distribution.Results The ensemble model showed significantly superior predictive performance.TSS value and AUC value were 0.924 and 0.992,respectively.Key environmental factors significantly influencing the distribution of Hedysari Radix included slope,aspect,daily average temperature difference,isothermity,seasonal variation coefficient of temperature,lowest temperature in the coldest month,annual precipitation,driest month precipitation,and seasonal variation coefficient of precipitation.Under current climate conditions,suitable habitats for Hedysari Radix were primarily concentrated in the regions of Longnan and Dingxi in Gansu Province,covering an area of approximately 26.17×104 km2.Under future climate scenarios,suitable habitats will gradually shift toward the northwest into lower temperature zones,with a significant reduction in area.Conclusion The habitat suitability model developed in this study provides a basis for the conservation and sustainable utilization of Hedysari Radix genetic resources,while also offering a methodological reference for ecological adaptability studies of medicinal plants.关键词
红芪/Biomod2/气候变化/适生区预测Key words
Hedysari Radix/Biomod2/climate change/prediction of suitable habitats分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
郭丽嵘,何英梅,马潇,杨鹏伟,刘东升,倪琳..基于集成模型的不同气候情景下我国红芪潜在分布预测研究[J].中国中医药信息杂志,2025,32(10):1-6,6.基金项目
甘肃省药品科研项目(2023GSMPA008、2022GSMPA0061、2023GSMPA065) （2023GSMPA008、2022GSMPA0061、2023GSMPA065）
