中国水利Issue(18)：19-28,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2025.18.003
超大特大城市极端暴雨致涝过程高效模拟预测方法研究
Efficient simulation and prediction method for extreme rainfall-induced flooding processes in ultra-large cities
摘要
Abstract
Under the background of global climate change,the risk of extreme rainfall-induced flooding in cities is increasingly intensifying.How to achieve efficient and accurate prediction of such flooding processes in ultra-large cities has become a core scientific issue and engineering demand for disaster prevention,mitigation,and enhancing urban resilience.To address the problems of low computational efficiency and poor real-time performance of traditional hydrodynamic models,a dual-driven high-efficiency simulation and prediction method that integrates physical mechanism models with artificial intelligence(AI)algorithms is proposed.By incorporating runoff generation calculations,two-dimensional hydrodynamic routing,and the coupled mechanism of pipe networks and surface flow,a high-precision numerical model of rainfall-flood processes is constructed.Through non-uniform grid optimization and multi-GPU parallel computing,efficient and accurate simulation of extreme rainfall-induced flooding in ultra-large cities is achieved.Using training data generated by the physical model to drive the AI prediction model enables rapid forecasting of flooding processes.Taking Xi'an City in Shaanxi Province as an example,the dual-driven prediction model based on the integration of physical mechanisms and AI algorithms achieves a computational speed about 287 times faster than traditional hydrodynamic models,with relative error below 10%,and realizes rapid classification of waterlogging risks in the main urban area under extreme rainfall.This method provides efficient technical support for rapid early warning and scientific response to urban waterlogging caused by extreme rainfall in ultra-large cities.关键词
超大特大城市/极端暴雨/内涝/数值模拟/物理机理-AI双驱动/快速精准预测/水文水动力模型Key words
ultra-large cities/extreme rainfall/waterlogging/numerical simulation/mechanism-AI dual-driven/rapid and accurate prediction/hydrologic-hydrodynamic model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
侯精明,官保君,王添,李东来,潘鑫鑫,杨永平,张世杰,陈光照,马利平,吕佳豪..超大特大城市极端暴雨致涝过程高效模拟预测方法研究[J].中国水利,2025,(18):19-28,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3012403) （2024YFC3012403）
国家自然科学基金项目(52409104). （52409104）
