中国水利Issue(18)：44-50,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2025.18.006
调水工程运行期风险评估实践与完善路径
Practice and improvement path of risk assessment during the operation period of water diversion projects
摘要
Abstract
Major water diversion projects are the main framework and arteries of the national water network,and their safe and stable operation is of strategic significance for ensuring water resource supply and sustainable economic and social development.Safety risk assessment is an important technical means to support project and water supply security.Given the characteristics of water diversion projects,such as large scale,complex systems,and dynamically changing environments,a dynamic closed-loop technical route of"identification-evaluation-control-update"is systematically constructed,a risk identification method system integrating data analysis,on-site investigation,and model assistance is proposed,and an evaluation index system is established covering natural environment,engineering facilities,operation management,social economy,and ecological environment.Through comparative analysis,it is clarified that risk assessment has advantages over safety evaluation in terms of dynamics,systematicness,and forward-looking,making it suitable for the risk prevention and control needs of complex systems in the national water network.Combined with major project practices,the current deficiencies in institutional standard systems,technical support capabilities,cross-system collaboration,and ecological and social risk assessment are revealed.Accordingly,a systematic improvement path is proposed from five aspects:institutional system,technical standards,intelligent monitoring,management and control collaboration,and application of results.It is further suggested to deeply integrate new technologies such as digital twins and multimodal large models to promote the development of risk assessment towards intelligence,systematization,and refinement,providing theoretical and practical support for enhancing the risk prevention and control capabilities of water diversion projects.关键词
调水工程/风险评估/安全运行/数字孪生/风险管控/制度体系/技术标准Key words
water diversion project/risk assessment/safe operation/digital twin/risk management and control/institutional system/technical standard分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
胡江,朱清帅,李星..调水工程运行期风险评估实践与完善路径[J].中国水利,2025,(18):44-50,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2443232、52179138) （U2443232、52179138）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Yk725001、Y72004). （Yk725001、Y72004）
