中国水利Issue(18)：51-58,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2025.18.007
"望、闻、问、切"的调水必要性体系化判别
A systematic identification of the necessity of water diversion based on Observing,Listening,Inquiring,and Predicting——inspiration from the preliminary demonstration of the Overall Planning of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project
摘要
Abstract
China's unique resource and geographical endowments have made water diversion projects play a long-term strategic role in supporting the construction of the national water network.A scientific and rational demonstration of the necessity of water diversion and the determination of its scale are crucial for ensuring the sound operation of such projects.Based on a review and analysis of the relevant achievements of the Overall Planning of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,this paper refines and proposes a systematic identification approach to the necessity of water diversion,namely Observing,Listening,Inquiring,and Predicting,from multiple dimensions including space,time,rationality of water use,and future development.The corresponding methods involve static comparison of water resource endowments,dynamic analysis of water use processes,evaluation of water use rationality,and prediction of water supply and demand.Furthermore,given the complexity of determining the scale of water diversion,the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is again taken as an example to analyze the major constraining and influencing factors related to water supply-demand forecasting,with a view to providing planning references for the preliminary demonstrations of other water diversion projects and for the construction of the national water network system.关键词
调水必要性/调水规模/复杂性/望、闻、问、切/水资源供需分析/南水北调/国家水网Key words
necessity of water diversion/scale of water diversion/complexity/Observing,Listening,Inquiring,and Predicting/water supply and demand analysis/South-to-North Water Diversion/national water network分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
彭祥.."望、闻、问、切"的调水必要性体系化判别[J].中国水利,2025,(18):51-58,8.基金项目
水利部重大科技项目"南水北调工程总体规划回顾性评价及后续工程研究论证相关制约影响因素分析"(SKS-2022126). （SKS-2022126）
