中国水利Issue(18)：59-67,72,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2025.18.008
汉江流域植被覆盖变化响应阈值与调控对策
Thresholds of vegetation cover change and regulatory strategies in the Hanjiang River basin
摘要
Abstract
The Hanjiang River basin is not only the core water source area for the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project but also a key ecological node within the Yangtze River basin.Vegetation change in this region is directly related to the implementation of major national strategies and regional sustainable development.Based on time-series NDVI data from 2000 to 2023,combined with the Geodetector model,Random Forest algorithm,and Partial Dependence Plot method,the driving mechanisms of vegetation change in the Hanjiang River basin were systematically revealed from three aspects:spatiotemporal variation characteristics,identification of driving factors,and analysis of response thresholds.Differentiated regulatory strategies for the upper,middle,and lower reaches were also proposed.The results show that vegetation in the basin has generally improved since 2000,but with marked spatial differences,presenting a pattern of continuous improvement in the upper reaches,fluctuating changes in the middle reaches,and intensified degradation in the lower reaches.Vegetation change in the upper basin is mainly influenced by natural factors,with elevation,annual precipitation,and mean annual temperature as the key drivers,while vegetation in the middle and lower reaches is affected by the combined influence of land use and geomorphological type.Nonlinear relationships exist between key drivers and NDVI.Optimal vegetation conditions in the upper basin occur under precipitation of 1600～1800 mm,elevation of 1500～2000 m,and mean annual temperature of 7～10℃.In the middle and lower reaches,NDVI shows dual inflection points at elevations of about 100 m and 500 m,reflecting sensitive areas and critical thresholds of vegetation ecosystems to external disturbances.Based on these findings,a"zonal classification and coordinated management"vegetation restoration pathway is proposed,establishing a comprehensive governance system integrating engineering measures,ecological restoration,and institutional safeguards to support ecological security enhancement and policy-making in the basin.关键词
归一化植被指数/驱动因子/响应阈值/调控对策/南水北调中线水源地/汉江流域/植被调控Key words
normalized difference vegetation index/driving factors/response thresholds/regulatory strategies/water source area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project/Hanjiang River basin/vegetation regulation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王竹,张冠华,王一帆,杨文俊..汉江流域植被覆盖变化响应阈值与调控对策[J].中国水利,2025,(18):59-67,72,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2340203、42377330、52130903) （U2340203、42377330、52130903）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费(CKSF2025696/TB). （CKSF2025696/TB）
