川北医学院学报2025，Vol.40Issue(10)：1313-1317,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-3697.2025.10.020
儿童肺炎支原体肺炎并发大叶性肺炎的危险因素及其列线图模型构建
Risk factors and nomogram model construction of mycoplasma pneumon-iae pneumonia complicated with lobar pneumonia in children
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia(MPP)complicated with lobar pneumonia in children,and to construct its nomogram prediction model.Methods:The clinical data of 322 children with MPP were retrospectively analyzed.According to the imaging diagnostic criteria,they were divided into concurrent group(n=179)and non-concurrent group(n=143).The general data,laboratory indicators at admission,imaging features and treatment infor-mation of all children were collected.The differences of the above data between the two groups were compared.Multivariate Lo-gistic regression analysis was used to screen out the independent risk factors of MPP children complicated with lobar pneumoni-a,and the nomogram model was constructed by R software.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to verify the predictive efficacy of the model.Results:Of the 322 children,179 had lobar pneumonia,with an incidence of 55.59%(179/322).Compared with the concurrent group,the non-concurrent group was older(P<0.05),the proportion of fever dura-tion≥7 d,pleural effusion,pulmonary consolidation involving more than 2 lobes and the levels of PCT,D-dimer,CRP,ESR and LDH were higher(P<0.05),and the time from onset to application of macrolides was longer(P<0.05).Multivariate Lo-gistic regression analysis showed that the duration of fever≥7 days(OR=1.752,95%CI:1.324～2.319),high level of CRP(OR=2.433,95%CI:1.529～3.871),high level of LDH(OR=1.933,95%CI:1.377～2.713),pleural effusion(OR=3.504,95%CI:1.535～7.998)and long time from onset to application of macrolides(OR=2.591,95%CI:1.408～4.766)were independent risk factors for lobar pneumonia in children with MPP(P<0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of the nomogram prediction model ROC was 0.920,the sensitivity was 85.47%,and the specificity was 87.41%.Conclusion:Persis-tent fever,CRP and LDH levels,pleural effusion and the use of macrolides from onset to onset are closely related to lobar pneu-monia in children with MPP.The nomogram prediction model constructed based on this has good predictive efficacy after inter-nal verification.关键词
肺炎支原体肺炎/大叶性肺炎/风险因素/列线图Key words
Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia/Lobar pneumonia/Risk factors/Nomogram分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
韩裕,彭万胜,夏群,贾文婷..儿童肺炎支原体肺炎并发大叶性肺炎的危险因素及其列线图模型构建[J].川北医学院学报,2025,40(10):1313-1317,5.基金项目
蚌埠医科大学科研课题计划自然科学重点项目(2023byzd085) （2023byzd085）
