家政学刊2025，Vol.2Issue(3)：167-179,13.DOI:10.20181/j.jzxk.jlau.250063
女性婚姻推迟与一孩生育
Women's Marriage Delay and the First-Order Birth
摘要
Abstract
Using data from the 2017 National Fertility Survey,this study calculates the average number of first children ever born—both crude and standardized—for selected birth cohorts from a cohort perspective.It decomposes changes in this average,examines the age-specific ratio of the fertility rate to the cumulative marital fertility rate for first births,and simulates the impact of marriage postponement on the mean number of first children ever born.The results indicate that later birth cohorts exhibit a lower average number of first children ever born,primarily due to a decline in the proportion of married individuals and an increase in the share of childless married women by age.Simulations further suggest that,taking into account delayed marriage and the rising proportion of lifelong unmarried individuals,the average number of first children in subsequent birth cohorts will continue to decline.In the future,as the age structure of women of reproductive age continues to shift toward older ages,marriage postponement is likely to become a major factor exacerbating the risk of low fertility in China.关键词
婚姻推迟/平均曾生一孩数/分解/模拟Key words
marriage delay/average number of first children ever born/decomposition/simulation分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
姜全保,芦梦悦,王甜..女性婚姻推迟与一孩生育[J].家政学刊,2025,2(3):167-179,13.基金项目
国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD185) （23&ZD185）
