南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.49Issue(5)：19-28,10.DOI:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312009
基于InVEST-PLUS-GeoDectetor模型的环杭州湾碳储量时空演变与多情景预测
Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of carbon storage around Hangzhou Bay based on InVEST-PLUS-GeoDectetor model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Against the backdrop of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,this study delves into the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of land-use changes and carbon storage.The aim of this study is to offer insights for future regional carbon balance,the optimization of the internal land-use structure,and the sustainable social-economic development around Hangzhou Bay.[Method]Taking the Hangzhou Bay area as a case study,by leveraging the InVEST and PLUS models,this paper assessed the impacts of land use on the alterations in carbon storage and the vulnerability of ecosystem carbon storage services from 1980 to 2020.The GeoDectetor model was utilized to analyze the driving factors behind the differentiation and changes in carbon storage,and forecasted the land-use patterns and changes in carbon storage under multiple scenarios in 2030.[Result](1)Cultivated land and forest land were the predominant land types around Hangzhou Bay.Over the past nearly 40 years,the overall land-use intensity increased by 10.35 units.The land usage remained at a medium-development level and demonstrated a year-on-year upward trend.Meanwhile,the total carbon storage in the study area generally exhibited a pattern of first increasing and then decreasing.From 1980 to 2000,it was predominantly a carbon sink,while from 2000 to 2020,it turned into a carbon source.(2)The single factor detection revealed that the differentiation and changes in carbon storage were mainly and significantly influenced by natural factors such as slope.The two-factor interaction detection indicated that the changes in carbon storage resulted from the combined effects of multiple factors.Besides being affected by natural factors,human factors also impeded the growth of vegetation coverage,ultimately influencing the distribution of regional carbon storage.(3)Under the three scenarios in 2030,with the exception of an increase under future ecological protection scenario,the other two scenarios showed varying degrees of decline.This implied that in the future,under the ecological protection scenario,the effective conservation of ecological land had a substantially higher impact on the stability of carbon storage compared to the natural development scenario and the economic growth scenario.[Conclusion]The land use around Hangzhou Bay under future ecological protection scenario can comprehensively coordinate the functions of diverse land types,decelerate the loss of carbon storage,and is of great significance for the optimization of the regional territorial space.关键词
碳储量/土地利用/多情景预测/地理探测器/环杭州湾Key words
carbon storage/land use/multi-scenario forecast/GeoDetector/around Hangzhou Bay分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
孙严超,蔡俊,王子豪,田凤雅,李天龙..基于InVEST-PLUS-GeoDectetor模型的环杭州湾碳储量时空演变与多情景预测[J].南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,49(5):19-28,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(71203054) （71203054）
安徽农业大学2021年安徽乡村振兴战略研究中心项目(校科字[2021]10号) （校科字[2021]10号）
河北省科学院科技计划(23A14). （23A14）
