大气科学学报2025，Vol.48Issue(5)：818-827,10.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20240918001
中国耕地面积的时空变化及其对温度和降水的响应研究
Spatiotemporal effects of temperature and precipitation on cropland dy-namics in China
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid advancement of industrialization and urbanization,global climate change has acceler-ated,marked not only by rising temperatures but also by more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves,intense precipitation,and prolonged droughts.These changes pose significant challenges to human societies.As a critical component of agricultural production,cropland is highly sensitive to climatic variations,thereby in-fluencing the sustainability of food systems.In recent years,cropland area in China has exhibited a fluctuating trend;however,few studies have systematically investigated its response to recent climate change.In this study,we utilize high-resolution land cover and meteorological reanalysis dataset to assess the spatiotemporal response of cropland area in China to variations in temperature and precipitation from 2000 to 2019.A fixed-effects regression model is employed to isolate the climatic effects by controlling for human factors such as policy interventions.Our findings indicate that China has been undergoing a shift toward warmer and drier conditions.The relationship be-tween cropland area and climatic variables is non-linear:higher temperatures and moderate precipitation are gener-ally favorable for cropland expansion.Compared with precipitation,temperature exerts a stronger influence,con-tributing to a 1.22％increase in cropland area during the study period.Specifically,reductions in the frequency of cold days(daily mean temperature below-10 ℃)and increases in hot days(above 30 ℃)contributed 0.67％and 0.31％,respectively,to cropland expansion.However,the growing frequency of extreme rainfall events,par-ticularly during the later stages of crop growth,has had a significant negative impact on cropland.These results highlight the importance of accounting for extreme weather events when evaluating cropland dynamics.Moreover,human factors,especially policy-related land use changes,remain crucial.In regions with high cropland quality,such as southern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,policy-driven losses may counter-act the positive climatic effects on cropland.Going forward,maintaining cropland quantity should be balanced with ensuring its quality to support sustainable agricultural development.关键词
气候变化/耕地面积/温度/降水Key words
climate change/cropland area/temperature/precipitation引用本文复制引用
姜玲玲,罗岚,邢贞成,刘翔,褚博文,刘逸凡,王海鲲..中国耕地面积的时空变化及其对温度和降水的响应研究[J].大气科学学报,2025,48(5):818-827,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42475191) （42475191）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金关键地球物质循环前沿科学中心"GeoX"交叉项目(20250306) （20250306）
