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数字颠覆性创新评估指标与方法研究

郭琳娜 闫冬 薛瑞

全球科技经济瞭望2025,Vol.40Issue(6):64-76,13.
全球科技经济瞭望2025,Vol.40Issue(6):64-76,13.DOI:10.3772/j.issn.1009-8623.2025.06.008

数字颠覆性创新评估指标与方法研究

Research of the Evaluation Indicators and Methods of Digital Disruptive Innovation

郭琳娜 1闫冬 1薛瑞2

作者信息

  • 1. 科技部科技评估中心,北京 100081
  • 2. 北京市科学技术研究院科技情报研究所,北京 100089
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of evaluating digital disruptive innovation by constructing an assessment framework and methodological system based on the theory of change.Through analyzing the conceptual characteristics and evaluation needs of digital disruptive innovation,it establishes assessment objectives and principles,proposes an evaluation system comprising 19 indicators across five dimensions,objective positioning,organizational implementation,risk assessment,outcome value,and potential impact,and introduces a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods such as policy comparison,expert interviews,bibliometrics,and multi-indicator comprehensive analysis to form an operable overall evaluation scheme.The research results effectively respond to the interactive mechanism between process and outcome,dynamism,and cross-domain integration inherent in digital innovation,providing theoretical foundations and practical tools for systematically identifying and assessing the strategic alignment,implementation effectiveness,and transformational potential of digital disruptive innovation activities.Finally,the study points out the need for further empirical validation and explores directions such as dynamic assessment mechanisms and the development of intelligent evaluation tools.

关键词

颠覆性技术创新/数字创新/变革理论/科技评估

Key words

disruptive technology innovation/digital innovation/theory of change/technology evaluation

分类

管理科学

引用本文复制引用

郭琳娜,闫冬,薛瑞..数字颠覆性创新评估指标与方法研究[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2025,40(6):64-76,13.

全球科技经济瞭望

1009-8623

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