兽类学报2025，Vol.45Issue(5)：602-614,13.DOI:10.16829/j.slxb.150963
气候变化背景下三江源国家公园四种野生有蹄类动物栖息地适宜性分析
Habitat suitability analysis for four wild ungulates in Sanjiangyuan Na-tional Park under different climate change scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Climate change and human activities have direct or indirect impacts on the distribution and abundance of spe-cies,particularly on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Wild ungulates are vital components of the ecosystem,with their habi-tat and living conditions playing a decisive role in maintaining ecological balance and stability.Predicting the effects of climate change on their distribution range can provide a scientific basis and reference for the conservation of wild ungu-lates and habitat restoration in key areas.This study specifically focuses on four species of wild ungulates in Sanjiangyu-an National Park,Tibetan gazelle(Procapra picticaudata),Tibetan antelope(Pantholops hodgsonii),kiang(Equus ki-ang),and wild yak(Bos mutus).By utilizing the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software,we conducted an analysis to deter-mine the potential geographical distribution of these four species.Subsequently,we predicted dynamic changes in their habitat suitability and geographical range under two scenarios:low and high carbon emissions for the 2050s and 2070s.The findings revealed that the suitable habitat area for Tibetan gazelle accounted for 52.22％of the total park area,while corresponding proportions for Tibetan antelope,kiang,and wild yak were 13.71％,19.23％,and 9.22％respectively.Multiple variables influenced the distribution of these four species.Notably,precipitation-related factors significantly impacted habitat selection by Tibetan gazelle and antelope populations and the antelope demonstrated some adaptability to human activities as well.In the face of future climate change,all four wild ungulates are experiencing a decline in suitable habitats,with the Tibetan antelope being particularly affected by the highest carbon emission concentration sce-nario.Furthermore,there is a noticeable trend among these species to migrate towards higher latitudes.Although the Sanjiangyuan National Park has encompassed most of the habitats for the four ungulate species,it remains essential to de-velop tailored protection and management strategies for each species.Specifically,proactive measures such as vegeta-tion restoration should be implemented in habitats that have been or may become damaged to enhance the ecological en-vironment's quality and provide a more suitable living space for these wild ungulates.关键词
三江源国家公园/藏原羚/藏羚/藏野驴/野牦牛/栖息地适宜性Key words
Sanjiangyuan National Park/Tibetan gazelle/Tibetan antelope/Kiang/Wild Yak/Habitat suitability分类
生物科学引用本文复制引用
王子涵,王东,侯陆一,李全邦,李其琴,魏海娟,连新明..气候变化背景下三江源国家公园四种野生有蹄类动物栖息地适宜性分析[J].兽类学报,2025,45(5):602-614,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF1305000) （2023YFF1305000）
青海省自然科学与工程技术学科带头人专项资金 （）
