兽类学报2025，Vol.45Issue(5)：615-628,14.DOI:10.16829/j.slxb.150958
气候与土地利用变化对塔里木盆地亚洲野猫适宜生境的影响
Impacts of climate and land-use changes on suitable habitats for Felis sil-vestris ornate in the Tarim Basin
摘要
Abstract
Climate and land-use changes are primary drivers of shifts in species ranges.Conducting relevant research can provide scientific supports for conservation planning and management of endangered species.Felis silvestris ornate,listed as a Second Class species in the National Key Protected Wild Animals in China,remains relatively understudied.This study focuses on the Tarim Basin of Xinjiang as the research area and employs the MaxEnt model to predict the po-tential suitable habitats of Felis silvestris ornate under current and future 2041-2070(2050s),2071-2100(2080s)cli-mate and land-use change scenarios.The research aims to reveal the distribution pattern of suitable habitats for the spe-cies,explore the influencing factors,and conduct an analysis of conservation gaps.The results showed that models had the smallest AICc value with regularization multiplier(RM)=3.0 and feature combination(FC)=LQHP.Averaged AUC value of the best-fitted model was 0.962 indicating high model performance.The current area of suitable habitats for Felis silvestris ornate is 61 456 km2,mainly concentrated in the northern and western parts of the Tarim basin,ac-counting for 6.03％of the total area.The normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),land-use types,and average annual temperature are the most important factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for Felis silvestris or-nate.In the future,the area of suitable habitat for Felis silvestris ornate will increase to varying degrees.By 2080s(SSP585),the area of suitable habitats will increase by 63.05％compared to the current area,mainly located in the north-em part of the basin.Conservation gap analysis revealed that only 6.90％and 5.30％of the suitable habitat area for the Felis silvestris ornate is covered by the nature reserves in the current and future periods,respectively,indicating that the conservation effectiveness of the nature reserve is low in both periods.This study analyzed the dynamic changes in suit-able habitats of Felis silvestris ornate in the Tarim Basin under the background of climate and land-use changes,along with its influencing factors,providing solid data support for the conservation and management of this species.关键词
野猫亚洲亚种/中级捕食者/MaxEnt/物种分布模型/保护空缺Key words
Felis silvestris ornate/Meso-predator/MaxEnt/Species distribution model/Conservation gap分类
生物科学引用本文复制引用
李辉煌,卓莹莹,巴图巴艺尔,窦子微,Sabina Koirala Sharma,汪沐阳,杨维康..气候与土地利用变化对塔里木盆地亚洲野猫适宜生境的影响[J].兽类学报,2025,45(5):615-628,14.基金项目
中国科学院西部青年学者项目(2021-XBQNXZ-014) （2021-XBQNXZ-014）
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0205) （2022xjkk0205）
