水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(9)：1109-1118,10.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20250053
基于直接数值模拟方法的坝址最大可信地震危险性评估体系
Assessment framework for maximum credible earthquake hazards at dam sites based on direct numerical simulation method
摘要
Abstract
Many high dams in western China are located in regions with high seismic intensity and face the risk of experiencing ground motions exceeding design levels.To reasonably assess the extreme earthquake scenarios that the dam site may encounter,this study introduces the concept of Maximum Credible Earthquake(MCE)hazard for the dam site,considering the randomness and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal rupture process of earthquake faults,and establishes a corresponding assessment framework.This framework employs physics-based broadband ground-motion simulations,taking into account key factors such as specific faults around the dam,propagation path,and local site conditions.It generates a vast number of MCE scenarios,statistically analyzes the probability distribution of ground motion parameters at the dam site,and determines engineering design parameters.The proposed assessment frame-work provides a more rational seismic load for seismic design and safety evaluation in regions prone to strong earth-quakes,which is of great significance for ensuring the seismic safety of major hydropower projects.关键词
最大可信地震危险性/最大可信地震动/直接数值模拟/工程设防参数Key words
maximum credible earthquake hazard/maximum credible ground motion/direct numerical simulation/engineering design parameters分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王进廷,王向超,张楚汉,杜修力..基于直接数值模拟方法的坝址最大可信地震危险性评估体系[J].水利学报,2025,56(9):1109-1118,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(52339007) （52339007）
国家自然科学基金青年项目(52409159) （52409159）
