生态科学2025，Vol.44Issue(4)：49-59,11.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2025.04.006
基于PLUS模型的淮河流域安徽段景观生态风险评价及预测
Evaluation and prediction of landscape ecological risk in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin based on PLUS model
摘要
Abstract
To evaluate landscape ecological risk in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin and reveal the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and future trends of landscape ecological risks,this study utilized land use data from the years of 2000,2010 and 2020.Then,a landscape ecological risk assessment model was constructed based on landscape disturbance and landscape vulnerability indices by using ArcGIS 10.2 and Fragstats 4.2.Combined with a Geodetector method,the spatial-temporal patterns and driving factors of landscape ecological risks were assessed.Furthermore,the PLUS model was employed to simulate and predict the spatial distribution and change characteristics of landscape ecological risks under three different scenarios of the year 2030.The results showed that the landscape ecological risk of Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin exhibited the spatial pattern characterized by"high risk along both sides of the Huaihe River and low risk in the north and south".High-risk and relatively high-risk areas gradually transitioned to relatively high-risk and mediate-risk areas,respectively.Mediate-risk zones gradually expanded,and the overall ecological risk level showed a downward trend.Human disturbance index had a strong explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of landscape ecological risk in this region.The interaction effects between human disturbance and elevation,precipitation and temperature played the vital roles in determining the spatial pattern of landscape ecological risk.Under the ecological protection scenario,the area of low and relatively low ecological risk was the largest.Compared to other scenarios,the area of high ecological risk was the smallest,accounting for 13.53%.These findings provide a foundation for an in-depth understanding of the spatio-temporal patterns of landscape ecological risks in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin,offering scientific references for promoting high-quality development within the basin and the construction of the"Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt".关键词
景观生态风险/空间自相关/地理探测器/PLUS模型/淮河流域安徽段Key words
landscape ecological risk/spatial auto-correlation/geodetector/PLUS model/Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
洪炜林,苗雨青,孙方虎,顾纪祥,武传胜,王昊,马思甜,程美华..基于PLUS模型的淮河流域安徽段景观生态风险评价及预测[J].生态科学,2025,44(4):49-59,11.基金项目
安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(2108085MD126) （2108085MD126）
国家自然科学基金项目(41601083) （41601083）
环境激素与生殖发育安徽省重点实验室开放课题(FSKFKT012) （FSKFKT012）
