中国农学通报2025，Vol.41Issue(27)：99-105,7.
陇东苹果落叶病与气象因子的相关性及预报方法研究
Research on Correlation Between Meteorological Factors and Apple Leaf Fall Disease in Longdong Region and Its Prediction Methods
摘要
Abstract
This study analyzed the relationship between meteorological conditions and apple leaf fall diseases using observation data(2014-2023)from the Agricultural Technology Promotion Center of Ningxian County(a core apple-producing region in Longdong)and meteorological data from Ningxian Meteorological Station.Statistical methods included correlation analysis,multiple regression,and hypothesis testing.The results showed that the active period of apple leaf fall diseases in Ningxian occurred from June to October,with the highest severity observed between July and September.The disease onset was closely associated with early-stage rainfall and air humidity,while frequent precipitation and high temperatures were the dominant exacerbating factors.Occasionally,abnormal precipitation delayed disease fluctuations by 5-10 days.The annual maximum disease incidence significantly correlated with winter temperature,early summer temperature,and August-September precipitation/humidity.A multiple regression-based prediction equation was developed,so as to accurately grasp the internal relationship between pathogen activity and weather changes,and provide more accurate meteorological early warning and disease prevention and control suggestions for fruit farmers.Optimizing irrigation and enhancing tree stress resistance can effectively mitigate Alternaria leaf spot severity,thereby improving yield and fruit quality in Longdong apple orchards.关键词
气象因子/陇东苹果/斑点落叶病/发病机理/相关性分析/回归模型Key words
meteorological factors/Longdong apple/alternaria leaf spot disease/pathogenesis/correlation analysis/regression models分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
邱宁刚,张洪芬,张天峰,周忠文,马源徽,邱雅林,杜军..陇东苹果落叶病与气象因子的相关性及预报方法研究[J].中国农学通报,2025,41(27):99-105,7.基金项目
甘肃省科技重大专项-社会发展领域项目"气候变化背景下甘肃精细化农业气候资源和农业气象灾害风险区划及预警研制"(25ZDFA011) （25ZDFA011）
甘肃省庆阳市自然科学基金农业重大科研项目"气象因子对陇东苹果病虫害发生的影响及预测预报研究"(QY-STK-2023A-S082) （QY-STK-2023A-S082）
甘肃省气象局科研项目"陇东果园春季晚霜冻防治技术措施研究"(ZcMs2024-G-27). （ZcMs2024-G-27）
