中国农业科学2025，Vol.58Issue(18)：3710-3727,18.DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2025.18.010
中国农业碳排放密度的时空特征、动态演进与空间效应
China's Agricultural Carbon Emission Density:Spatiotemporal Characteristics,Dynamic Evolution,and Spatial Effect
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aimed to compare the advantages of agricultural carbon emission density indicators,and to clarify the current situation,influencing factors,and spatial spillover effects of inter provincial agricultural carbon emission density in China,so as to provide a reference for exploring more potential space for agricultural carbon reduction.[Method]On the basis of accurately measuring the carbon emission density of agriculture in China and its provinces,this study used methods such as kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation,and spatial Durbin model to investigate its spatiotemporal characteristics,influencing factors,and spatial spillover effects.[Result]Although the agricultural carbon emission density has slightly decreased from 2005 to 2022,it was accompanied by significant interannual fluctuations,showing an overall change in three stages:"fluctuation decrease","continuous increase",and"fluctuation decrease".Inter provincial development has shown a balanced trend,and although there was still an absolute gap,it was continuously narrowing;there was a strong and stable spatial dependence pattern in agricultural carbon emission density,with a local spatial heterogeneity pattern dominated by the"low-low"clustering type of interdependence between low-density provinces and multiple low-density provinces,and the"high-high"clustering type of interdependence between high-density provinces and multiple high-density provinces as the secondary dominant pattern;the carbon emission density of agriculture was comprehensively influenced by four levels:government responsibilities,economic development,social participation,and cultural education.There was an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of agricultural economic development and agricultural industry agglomeration.Agricultural technological progress significantly promoted the reduction of agricultural carbon emission density,while the increases in agricultural public investment,financial support for agriculture,agricultural industrial structure,rural human capital,and industrialization level all led to an increase in agricultural carbon emission density;in terms of spatial spillover effects,the improvement of agricultural economic development level in surrounding areas would cause an initial increase and then a decrease in local agricultural carbon emission density.The increase in agricultural public investment in surrounding areas would promote a decrease in local agricultural carbon emission density,while the spatial spillover effects of fiscal support for agriculture and rural human capital would lead to an increase in local agricultural carbon emission density.[Conclusion]There were still significant differences in agricultural carbon emission density among provinces in China;There is a strong spatial dependence between provinces across the country,and there were obvious spatial heterogeneity patterns in some regions;the carbon emission density of agriculture was influenced by four factors:government responsibilities,economic development,social participation,and cultural education.Continuously improving the level of agricultural economic development and increasing public investment in agriculture were beneficial for reducing the carbon emission density of agriculture in surrounding areas,while the spatial spillover effect of fiscal support for agriculture and rural human capital was the opposite.关键词
碳中和/农业碳排放/农业碳排放密度/时空特征/空间效应/中国Key words
carbon neutrality/agricultural carbon emissions/agricultural carbon emission density/spatiotemporal characteristics/spatial effect/China引用本文复制引用
尹忞昊,陈池波,卢奕亨,田云..中国农业碳排放密度的时空特征、动态演进与空间效应[J].中国农业科学,2025,58(18):3710-3727,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(71903197)、国家社会科学基金(23BGL189) （71903197）
