中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(7)：68-81,14.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250125
长三角城市群人口结构变迁对碳排放影响的异质性
Heterogeneity of the impact of population structure shifts on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration
摘要
Abstract
Population aging and the achievement of the"dual carbon"goals are two major challenges facing China.While population structure shifts dynamically reshape social demand and labor supply,they also bring potential uncertainties for China to achieve the"dual carbon"goals.Coordinating future population development with carbon reduction thus remains an urgent practical issue for deci-sion-makers to solve.Based on this,this study took the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the research object,fully consider-ing regional heterogeneity.It also used a finite mixture model to explore the nonlinear association of population aging and human capital with regional carbon emissions,analyze the path-transition characteristics of different cities,and investigate the potential mechanisms through which green technology innovation and industrial structure upgrading influence these path transitions by incorporating accom-panying variables into the model.The results showed that:① There existed a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between popu-lation aging and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Overall,only when the aging ratio exceeded 22.54%did the carbon-reduction advantage of aging manifest.However,most cities in the Yangtze River Delta remained below this threshold,and aging continued to show a carbon emission-promoting effect.② The impact of human capital on carbon emissions exhibited notable regional heterogeneity.Cities such as Hangzhou,Nanjing,and Hefei showed a significant inverted U-shaped relationship,whereas cities such as Suzhou and Wuxi showed a linear negative correlation.③ Regional green technology innovation and industrial structure upgrad-ing could facilitate the formation of the inverted U-shaped relationship between population aging or human capital and carbon emis-sions,accelerate turning point arrival,and strengthen their carbon reduction effects.This study not only clarifies the complex quantita-tive dependence relationship between population aging and carbon emissions but also provides decision-making support for balancing population development and carbon reduction across different regions of the Yangtze River Delta.关键词
人口老龄化/人力资本/"双碳"目标/有限混合模型/长三角城市群Key words
population aging/human capital/"dual carbon"goals/finite mixture model/Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
崔连标,宋国锋,朱磊..长三角城市群人口结构变迁对碳排放影响的异质性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(7):68-81,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"不确定性视角下中国减污降碳协同增效的复杂系统建模及政策优化研究"(批准号:72374001),"不确定条件下中国温室气体与大气污染物的协同控制研究"(批准号:71974001) （批准号:72374001）
国家自然科学基金专项项目"新型能源体系的激励政策设计与优化研究"(批准号:72342002) （批准号:72342002）
安徽省哲学社会科学规划课题重大项目"安徽'双碳'战略的实践路径研究"(批准号:AHSKZD2022D01). （批准号:AHSKZD2022D01）
