北京交通大学学报2025，Vol.49Issue(5)：94-101,8.DOI:10.11860/j.issn.1673-0291.20250123
地铁局部运营中断下滞留乘客多情境出行方式选择行为研究
Multi-scenario travel mode choice behavior of stranded passengers under metro service disruptions
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the decision-making mechanisms of stranded passengers'travel mode choice during unexpected metro service disruptions and to clarify the influence of key situational factors,this study constructs a baseline Multinomial Logit model incorporating mode-specific attributes,based on scenario simulations and Stated Preference(SP)surveys.A stepwise utility-correction approach is ap-plied to quantify both the impact intensity and patterns of influence exerted by factors such as expected recovery time,weather conditions,travel time and purpose,remaining trip distance,crowd behavior,and the availability of alternative routes.Model improvements are evaluated using the Likelihood Ratio Test(LRT),Akaike Information Criterion(AIC),Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC),and predic-tion error rates.The research results indicate that passenger decision-making demonstrates strong sce-nario dependence and a pronounced risk-averse tendency.The effects of situational factors vary consid-erably,with expected recovery time having the greatest impact(LR=183.98,prediction error reduced by 1.94%),followed by weather conditions(LR=102.63,error reduced by 1.16%).Trip purpose and remaining journey distance also show notable influence,while crowd behavior and alternative-route availability do not exhibit significant effects.Preferences shifts across public transport modes display similar patterns of change.however,waiting on-site,though frequently chosen as a passive option,maintains a considerable selection rate but declines significantly when systemic and situational risks overlap.Sensitivity to scenario factors differs markedly across modes,with those offering higher cer-tainty and lower risk proving more attractive in disruption scenarios.关键词
城市轨道交通/地铁运营中断/出行方式选择/情境依赖/滞留乘客Key words
urban rail transit/metro service disruption/travel mode choice/scenario dependence/stranded passengers分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
闫学东,高硕江,王云,刘晓冰,陈星..地铁局部运营中断下滞留乘客多情境出行方式选择行为研究[J].北京交通大学学报,2025,49(5):94-101,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(72371020,72288101)National Natural Science Foundation of China(72371020,72288101) （72371020,72288101）
